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ENVAEnova International, Inc.Buy Wait6.9·$179.82
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

ENVA is a high-quality compounder — wide economic moat, 25% return on equity, 21% net margins, a financial health score of 8 out of 9 — growing revenue at 26% year-over-year with four consecutive earnings beats averaging 8.4% above consensus, but the price is just below the $189.67 resistance target with only 0.3% headroom remaining, and 98% geographic concentration in a single market constitutes a hard block regardless of quality.

Thesis pillars

  • Single Geography Concentration Hard Block→Stable
  • Compounder Quality Attractive Multiple→Stable
  • Strong Growth Consistent Delivery↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 20, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Enova International, Inc. (ENVA) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 2/5GrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Credit Services

Wait for pullback to $172.53. At $179.82 the A.R:R is 1.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $172.53 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Single-region cliff: 98% exposure to United States (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (97.5%).

Enova International provides online consumer and small business loans and lines of credit across 37-49 U.S. states and in Brazil, extending approximately $7.8 billion in credit in 2025 and generating $3.15 billion in revenue. Enova earns interest and fees on installment loans... Read more

$179.82+11.7% A.UpsideScore 6.9/10#2 of 34 Credit Services
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield—
Entry $172.53(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $160.45Target $200.82(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.3:1
Analyst consensus$230.83+28.4%6 analysts
$200.82our TP
$179.82price
$230.83mean
$275

Wait for pullback to $172.53. At $179.82 the A.R:R is 1.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $172.53 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Single-region cliff: 98% exposure to United States (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (97.5%). Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Quality-value combo with favorable entry timing. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost earnings 0.60, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and finsvc regional cliff hard block. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Enova International, Inc.

About Enova International, Inc.

Enova International extended approximately $7.8 billion in credit or financing to consumers and small businesses in 2025, generating $3,151.7 million in revenue — a 23.8% compound annual growth rate since 2020. The United States accounted for 97.5% of that revenue, with consumer loans offered in 37 states and small business loans in 49 states; Brazil contributed the remaining 2.4%. The CFPB holds supervisory authority over Enova's U.S. consumer businesses, making it the primary federal regulatory counterpart across the portfolio.

Enova earns revenue through interest income and fees across four core product types. Consumer installment loans — $300 to $10,000, terms of 3 to 60 months — generated a 90% average annualized yield in 2025. Consumer lines of credit (up to $7,000) ran at a 147% average annualized yield. Small business installment loans ($5,000 to $400,000, 6-to-24-month terms) produced 48%, and small business lines of credit yielded 49%. Five separate bank partners supplied 31.6% of consolidated originations and purchases through Enova's Bank Programs as of December 31, 2025, though management does not deem there to be significant reliance on any single banking partner. The Pangea brand provides mobile money transfer from the United States to Mexico, Latin America, and Asia, earning revenue through per-transfer fees and an exchange-rate spread. Loan and finance receivables outstanding reached $4,748.0 million at December 31, 2025, up from $1,263.1 million in 2020.

Show full overview

Enova's primary federal regulator for U.S. consumer products is the CFPB, which exercised authority under the Small Dollar Rule's payment-withdrawal provisions effective March 30, 2025. On March 28, 2025, the CFPB issued a press release indicating it would not prioritize enforcement of those provisions and signaled a possible rulemaking to narrow the rule's scope. The 10-K notes that if the CFPB reverses course and enforces the rule in full, it could have a material adverse impact on Enova's business. The company is also pursuing the acquisition of Grasshopper, subject to regulatory approvals that may impose conditions or delay closure.

See also: Financial Services · Credit Services

From Enova International, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jan 26, 202789d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.0 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Single-region cliff: 98% exposure to United States (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (97.5%)
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.4): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.3
P/E (Fwd)8.6
Mkt Cap$4.4B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn20.9%
ROE26.8%
Rev Growth36.7%
Beta1.28
DividendNone
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C6.95bearish
IV50%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicUnited States98%
    10-K Item 1: 'The United States represented 97.5% of our total revenue in 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
2.2
Bollinger
3.2
52w Position
3.4
GatesA.R:R 1.3 < 1.5@spotFINSVC REGIONAL CLIFF HARD BLOCKMomentum 6.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST EARNINGS 0.60NEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60EARNINGS PROXIMITY 89d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
47 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $163.65Resistance $184.38

Price Targets

$160
$173
$201
A.Upside+11.7%
A.R:R1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! RISK-OFF: SMALL-cap BUY_NOW needs quality>=8.5 or MoS>=50%
! asymmetry at 1.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! FINSVC_REGIONAL_CLIFF:HARD_BLOCK

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2027-01-26 (89d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ENVA stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $172.53. At $179.82 the A.R:R is 1.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $172.53 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Single-region cliff: 98% exposure to United States (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (97.5%). Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Quality-value combo with favorable entry timing. Target $200.82 (+11.7%), stop $160.45 (−12.1%), A.R:R 1.3:1. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ENVA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $200.82 (+11.7% upside). Target $200.82 (+11.7%), stop $160.45 (−12.1%), A.R:R 1.3:1. Stop-loss: $160.45.

What are the risks of investing in ENVA?

Single-region cliff: 98% exposure to United States (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (97.5%); Leverage penalty (D/E 3.4): -1.5.

Is ENVA overvalued or undervalued?

Enova International, Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.3 (forward 8.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about ENVA?

12 analysts cover ENVA with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $231.

What does Enova International, Inc. do?Enova International provides online consumer and small business loans and lines of credit across 37-49 U.S. states and...

Enova International provides online consumer and small business loans and lines of credit across 37-49 U.S. states and in Brazil, extending approximately $7.8 billion in credit in 2025 and generating $3.15 billion in revenue. Enova earns interest and fees on installment loans and credit lines under brands including CashNetUSA, NetCredit, OnDeck, and Pangea.

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