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Yum China Holdings, Inc. (YUMC) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $48.83, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Concentration risk — Geographic: China.

Yum China operates 18,101 restaurants across 2,500+ cities in China under KFC (12,997 units), Pizza Hut (4,168 units), and emerging brands including Lavazza, Huang Ji Huang, and Taco Bell. The company generated $11.8 billion in revenues in 2025 from company-owned restaurants... Read more

$48.83+13.1% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#4 of 20 Restaurants
Stop $46.79Target $55.23(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.6:1
Analyst target$61.36+25.7%22 analysts
$55.23our TP
$48.83price
$61.36mean
$76

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $48.83, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Concentration risk — Geographic: China. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 96d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: China

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.3
P/E (Fwd)14.9
Mkt Cap$17.0B
EV/EBITDA10.0
Profit Mgn7.8%
ROE16.3%
Rev Growth9.7%
Beta0.16
Dividend2.39%
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.36bullish
IV44%normal
Max Pain$35-28.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicChina
    10-K Item 1A: 'substantially all of our revenue is derived from our operations in China'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 5.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.5>=4.5A.R:R 2.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 96d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $47.33Resistance $50.40

Price Targets

$47
$55
A.Upside+13.1%
A.R:R2.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Analyst Consensus

Analysts30
Consensus4.2/5
Avg Target$61

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (96d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is YUMC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $48.83, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Concentration risk — Geographic: China. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $55.23 (+13.1%), stop $46.79 (−4.4%), A.R:R 2.6:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the YUMC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $55.23 (+13.1% upside). Target $55.23 (+13.1%), stop $46.79 (−4.4%), A.R:R 2.6:1. Stop-loss: $46.79.

What are the risks of investing in YUMC?

Concentration risk — Geographic: China.

Is YUMC overvalued or undervalued?

Yum China Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 19.3 (forward 14.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about YUMC?

30 analysts cover YUMC with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $61.

What does Yum China Holdings, Inc. do?Yum China operates 18,101 restaurants across 2,500+ cities in China under KFC (12,997 units), Pizza Hut (4,168 units),...

Yum China operates 18,101 restaurants across 2,500+ cities in China under KFC (12,997 units), Pizza Hut (4,168 units), and emerging brands including Lavazza, Huang Ji Huang, and Taco Bell. The company generated $11.8 billion in revenues in 2025 from company-owned restaurants (~83% of units) plus royalties and product sales to franchisees.

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