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YUMCYum China Holdings, Inc.Hold5.9·$44.36-0.60%
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Yum China Holdings, Inc. (YUMC) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $44.36, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: China; Below 200-day MA.

Yum China is the largest restaurant company in China by 2025 system sales, operating 18,101 restaurants including KFC (12,997), Pizza Hut (4,168), and emerging brands Lavazza, Huang Ji Huang, and Little Sheep. With $11.8B revenue in 2025 and approximately 83% company-owned... Read more

$44.36+24.0% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#5 of 20 Restaurants
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield5.10%
IncomeYield2.60%(5y avg 1.30%)Payout38.70%sustainable
Stop $42.57Target $55.05(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 4.8:1
Analyst target$61.17+37.9%22 analysts
$55.05our TP
$44.36price
$61.17mean
$76

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $44.36, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: China; Below 200-day MA. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 24%
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: China
Below 200-day MA

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.1
P/E (Fwd)13.7
Mkt Cap$15.5B
EV/EBITDA9.4
Profit Mgn7.8%
ROE16.3%
Rev Growth9.7%
Beta0.09
Dividend2.60%
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.60bearish
IV56%elevated
Max Pain$58+29.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicChina
    10-K Item 1A: 'We derive substantially all of our revenue from our operations in China'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.1>=5.5A.R:R 4.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $42.32Resistance $45.74

Price Targets

$43
$55
A.Upside+24.1%
A.R:R4.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Analyst Consensus

Analysts29
Consensus4.2/5
Avg Target$61

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is YUMC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $44.36, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: China; Below 200-day MA. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $55.05 (+24.1%), stop $42.57 (−4.2%), A.R:R 4.8:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the YUMC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $55.05 (+24.0% upside). Target $55.05 (+24.1%), stop $42.57 (−4.2%), A.R:R 4.8:1. Stop-loss: $42.57.

What are the risks of investing in YUMC?

Concentration risk — Geographic: China; Below 200-day MA.

Is YUMC overvalued or undervalued?

Yum China Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 17.1 (forward 13.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about YUMC?

29 analysts cover YUMC with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $61.

What does Yum China Holdings, Inc. do?Yum China is the largest restaurant company in China by 2025 system sales, operating 18,101 restaurants including KFC...

Yum China is the largest restaurant company in China by 2025 system sales, operating 18,101 restaurants including KFC (12,997), Pizza Hut (4,168), and emerging brands Lavazza, Huang Ji Huang, and Little Sheep. With $11.8B revenue in 2025 and approximately 83% company-owned restaurants, it licenses KFC, Pizza Hut, and Taco Bell from Yum! Brands under a master license agreement.

Related stocks: ARCO (Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.) · YUM (Yum! Brands, Inc.) · CHA (Chagee Holdings Limited) · QSR (Restaurant Brands International) · CAKE (The Cheesecake Factory Incorpor)
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