Value
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.4 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.6 |
| PEG | 6.5 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.2x
- ▸PEG: 1.11
- ▸Attractively valued
YUMC · Why this verdict
Why Yum China Holdings (YUMC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.4 |
| ROA | 5.2 |
| Gross margin | 0.1 |
| Op margin | 5.5 |
| Net margin | 3.9 |
| Current ratio | 4.0 |
| FCF quality | 6.2 |
| Moat | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
4.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.9 |
| EPS growth | 4.6 |
Momentum
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 3.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.5 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 25, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.5 |
| Analyst rating | 9.0 |
| Price target | 9.3 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 44%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.9 |
| quality rank | 4.5 |
| growth rank | 6.5 |
Technical
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.9 |
| support resistance | 9.7 |
| 52w position | 4.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.4 |
| days to cover | 7.5 |
| volatility | 7.3 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 8.5 |
- ▸Above max pain $38
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.8 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 271.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:5.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:58d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.1<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
5.85
Upside
+29.3%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFALLING_KNIFE — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 25, MACD bearish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.7 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.9) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.1<4.5) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 5.85 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.9, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.7, and Technical at 7.5; the weakest are Momentum at 2.1, Growth at 4.8, and Quality at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.85 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.