Skip to main content
ARCOArcos Dorados Holdings Inc.Sell6.5·$8.83+0.80%
Open full analysis

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (ARCO) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Sell if holding. At $8.83, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 8.8%.

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. operates as a franchisee of McDonald's restaurants. It has the exclusive right to own, operate, and grant franchises of McDonald's restaurants in 21 countries and territories in Latin America and the Caribbean, including Argentina, Aruba, Brazil,... Read more

$8.83+8.7% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#1 of 20 Restaurants
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield9.81%
IncomeYield3.17%Payout22.52%sustainable
Stop $8.33Target $9.60(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.0:1
Analyst target$11.04+25.0%9 analysts
$9.60our TP
$8.83price
$11.04mean
$14

Sell if holding. At $8.83, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 8.8%. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 52, MACD bullish. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 67d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 19, 202667d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Thin upside margin: 8.8%
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.0
P/E (Fwd)10.3
Mkt Cap$1.9B
EV/EBITDA6.3
Profit Mgn4.9%
ROE36.3%
Rev Growth12.9%
Beta0.47
Dividend3.17%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.18bullish
IV78%elevated
Max Pain$10+13.3% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R 1.0 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 67d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $8.04Resistance $9.26

Price Targets

$8
$10
A.Upside+8.7%
A.R:R1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 1.0 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-19 (67d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ARCO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $8.83, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 8.8%. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 52, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $8.33. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ARCO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $9.60 (+8.7% upside). Prior stop was $8.33. Stop-loss: $8.33.

What are the risks of investing in ARCO?

Thin upside margin: 8.8%; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5.

Is ARCO overvalued or undervalued?

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. trades at a P/E of 8.0 (forward 10.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ARCO?

14 analysts cover ARCO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $11.

What does Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. do?Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. operates as a franchisee of McDonald's restaurants. It has the exclusive right to own,...

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. operates as a franchisee of McDonald's restaurants. It has the exclusive right to own, operate, and grant franchises of McDonald's restaurants in 21 countries and territories in Latin America and the Caribbean, including Argentina, Aruba, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Curacao, Ecuador, French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Puerto Rico, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay, the U.S. Virgin Islands of St. Croix and St. Thomas, and Venezuela. Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. was founded in 2007 and is based in Montevideo, Uruguay.

Related stocks: CHA (Chagee Holdings Limited) · YUMC (Yum China Holdings, Inc.) · SHAK (Shake Shack, Inc.) · EAT (Brinker International, Inc.) · CAVA (CAVA Group, Inc.)
Home Stocks ARCO

Latest news

Latest News

Simplywall.st26d ago
Benzinga26d ago
AlphaStreet26d agoEarnings
Seeking Alpha26d agoEarnings
MSN26d agoEarnings
TipRanks26d agoEarnings
TipRanks26d agoEarnings
Marketscreener.com26d agoEarnings
Marketscreener.com26d agoEarnings
Investing.com Nigeria26d agoEarnings
Quiver Quantitative26d agoEarnings
10TV26d agoEarnings
KING5.com26d agoEarnings
KTVB26d agoEarnings
KVUE26d agoEarnings
BriefGlance34d ago
The Manila Times34d ago
MSN27d agoEarnings
Investing.com Nigeria27d agoEarnings
TradingView27d agoEarnings
Loading more...