Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the CHA stock price target?

Take-profit $14.55 (+32.4% upside). Prior stop was $10.22.

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-05-01

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $10.99: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Below 200-MA, MA slope -15.0%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

$10.99+32.4% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#2 of 20 Restaurants

Stop $10.22Target $14.55(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.7:1

Analyst target$16.73+52.2%9 analysts

$14.55our TP

$10.99price

$16.73mean

$25

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $10.99: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Below 200-MA, MA slope -15.0%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 67. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 28d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

Attractive valuation

Analyst upside: 32%

Risks

Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Below 200-MA, MA slope -15.0%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-10.8% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -1.2%)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.3

P/E (Fwd)6.2

Mkt Cap$2.1B

EV/EBITDA-3.1

Profit Mgn9.1%

ROE21.1%

Rev Growth-10.8%

Beta—

DividendNone

Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value9.515%1.43

Quality5.815%0.87

Growth5.015%0.75

Momentum5.510%0.55

Sentiment7.310%0.73

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank4.810%0.48

Technical Setup1.15%0.06

Risk Profile7.75%0.39

Catalyst5.35%0.27

Overall (Σ contributions)6.01

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position

0.0

Support Resistance

1.5

Bollinger

1.9

GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.5>=5.5A.R:R 2.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 28d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive

RSI

67 · Neutral

↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $9.65Resistance $11.23

Price Targets

$10

$15

A.Upside+32.4%

A.R:R2.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING

Earnings

1/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-29 (28d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is CHA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $10.99: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Below 200-MA, MA slope -15.0%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 67. Prior stop was $10.22. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CHA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $14.55 (+32.4% upside). Prior stop was $10.22. Stop-loss: $10.22.

What are the risks of investing in CHA?

Consecutive earnings misses (2); Below 200-MA, MA slope -15.0%/30d (confirmed downtrend); Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-10.8% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -1.2%).

Is CHA overvalued or undervalued?

Chagee Holdings Limited trades at a P/E of 12.3 (forward 6.2). TrendMatrix value score: 9.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CHA?

12 analysts cover CHA with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $17.

What does Chagee Holdings Limited do?Chagee Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, owns, operates, and franchises teahouses under the CHAGEE brand name...

Chagee Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, owns, operates, and franchises teahouses under the CHAGEE brand name in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company engages in sale of tea drinks and related raw materials, packaging, teahouse equipment and other supplies. It operates through online platforms. The company was founded in 2017 and is based in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.