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CHAChagee Holdings LimitedSell6.3·$12.15+1.42%
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Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Sell if holding. At $12.15, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Below 200-MA, MA slope -11.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Chagee Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, owns, operates, and franchises teahouses under the CHAGEE brand in the People's Republic of China, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and the United States. The company sells freshly made tea... Read more

$12.15+11.4% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#3 of 20 Restaurants
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield50.98%
Stop $11.31Target $13.55(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$15.58+28.2%10 analysts
$13.55our TP
$12.15price
$15.58mean
$25

Sell if holding. At $12.15, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Below 200-MA, MA slope -11.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 68. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Aug 28, 202677d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Risks
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Below 200-MA, MA slope -11.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.2
P/E (Fwd)7.0
Mkt Cap$2.3B
EV/EBITDA-3.3
Profit Mgn7.2%
ROE15.3%
Rev Growth4.5%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Bollinger
2.6
Support Resistance
3.1
GatesA.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
68 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $9.36Resistance $13.40

Price Targets

$11
$14
A.Upside+11.5%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! asymmetry at 0.8 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-28 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CHA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $12.15, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Below 200-MA, MA slope -11.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 68. Prior stop was $11.31. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CHA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $13.55 (+11.4% upside). Prior stop was $11.31. Stop-loss: $11.31.

What are the risks of investing in CHA?

Consecutive earnings misses (2); Below 200-MA, MA slope -11.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is CHA overvalued or undervalued?

Chagee Holdings Limited trades at a P/E of 16.2 (forward 7.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CHA?

12 analysts cover CHA with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $16.

What does Chagee Holdings Limited do?Chagee Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, owns, operates, and franchises teahouses under the CHAGEE brand in...

Chagee Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, owns, operates, and franchises teahouses under the CHAGEE brand in the People's Republic of China, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and the United States. The company sells freshly made tea drinks, related raw materials, packaging, teahouse equipment, and other supplies. It also engages in supply chain product sales; brand, marketing, and management; and information technology activities. In addition, the company operates its teahouses online. Chagee Holdings Limited was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

Related stocks: ARCO (Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.) · YUMC (Yum China Holdings, Inc.) · SHAK (Shake Shack, Inc.) · CAVA (CAVA Group, Inc.) · CAKE (The Cheesecake Factory Incorpor)
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