Skip to main content
XOMExxon Mobil CorporationSell4.7·$146.97+0.25%
Open full analysis

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $146.97: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.97; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

ExxonMobil explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas, and manufactures and sells petroleum products, petrochemicals, and specialty products across Upstream, Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products segments. The company operates in the United States... Read more

$146.97+4.0% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#16 of 17 Oil & Gas Integrated
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield1.91%
IncomeYield2.80%(5y avg 3.70%)Payout68.01%
Stop $140.37Target $152.92(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$169.91+15.6%22 analysts
$152.92our TP
$146.97price
$169.91mean
$130
$185

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $146.97: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.97; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, earnings proximity 46d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Exxon Mobil Corporation

About Exxon Mobil Corporation

ExxonMobil generated roughly $340 billion in 2025 consolidated revenue across four reporting segments — Upstream, Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products — with operations or marketing activity in the United States and most other countries of the world. The company employed 58,000 regular workers at year-end 2025, down from 61,000 a year earlier, and held over 8,000 active patents worldwide at the close of the same period.

Revenue arises from exploration for and production of crude oil and natural gas; the manufacture, trade, transport and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals, and specialty products; and pursuit of lower-emission opportunities including carbon capture and storage, hydrogen and ammonia, lower-emission fuels, Proxxima resin systems, carbon materials, low-carbon data centers, and lithium. Under the 10-K's own framing, the Upstream segment is most exposed to material declines in oil and natural gas prices, while the Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products segments are most exposed to material increases in those same prices — a partial natural offset across the integrated portfolio. The Corporation characterizes its oil, gas, and petrochemical operations as commodity businesses, with margins on refined products dependent on local, regional, and global supply-and-demand conditions. Project economics depend on long-cycle capital deployment, joint-venture co-operator performance where ExxonMobil is not the operator, and contractual rights with host governments and partners.

Show full overview

Greenhouse-gas policy exposure cuts both ways for ExxonMobil under the filing's framing. Cap-and-trade regimes, carbon taxes, carbon-based import duties, electric-vehicle sales mandates, and restrictions on gasoline-only vehicles may weigh on hydrocarbon demand and could lengthen project implementation times, while paired opportunities sit in the Low Carbon Solutions business unit pursuing carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, ammonia, lower-emission fuels, and lithium. The Corporation discloses an ambition ultimately to achieve net zero with respect to Scope 1 and 2 emissions from operated assets, conditioned on continued technology development and government policy support. In May 2026, the company disclosed via Form 8-K the appointment of Susan Buchanan as Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer effective July 1, 2026, succeeding Len M. Fox.

See also: Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated

From Exxon Mobil Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted May 16, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Jul 31, 202646d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Material insider selling (18 sells, 0.22% of cap), Negative free cash flow

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.7
P/E (Fwd)13.8
Mkt Cap$609.3B
EV/EBITDA11.7
Profit Mgn7.8%
ROE9.9%
Rev Growth2.6%
Beta0.15
Dividend2.80%
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.97bearish
IV44%normal

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-04Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Len M. Fox, Vice President, Controller and Tax (principal accounting officer), announced his intention to retire effective July 1, 2026. The Corporation elected Susan Buchanan as Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer effective the same date; Buchanan most recently served as President of ExxonMobil Global Business Solutions since February 2026. Clean handoff.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-20Item 5.02LOW
    Director Jeffrey W. Ubben announced his intention not to stand for re-election at the May 27, 2026 annual meeting, for reasons unrelated to the company. He will remain on the board until the annual meeting. No successor named in the filing.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
3.1

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
3.6
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
7.8
Uptrend pullback (RSI 37) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
2.0
Operating Margin
2.5
Roa
2.8
Roe
3.3
Fcf Quality
3.7
Net Margin
3.9
Current Ratio
4.1
Moat
5.2
Piotroski F
6.7
Earnings quality RED FLAG: 46% FCF/NINo competitive moat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.6
Quality Rank
3.5
Growth Rank
5.3
GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5A.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 46d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
37 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $144.71Resistance $163.68

Price Targets

$140
$153
A.Upside+4.0%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Material insider selling (18 sells, 0.22% of cap), Negative free cash flow
! momentum at 3.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-31 (46d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is XOM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $146.97: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.97; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $140.37. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the XOM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $152.92 (+4.0% upside). Prior stop was $140.37. Stop-loss: $140.37.

What are the risks of investing in XOM?

Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Material insider selling (18 sells, 0.22% of cap), Negative free cash flow.

Is XOM overvalued or undervalued?

Exxon Mobil Corporation trades at a P/E of 24.7 (forward 13.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about XOM?

31 analysts cover XOM with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $170.

What does Exxon Mobil Corporation do?ExxonMobil explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas, and manufactures and sells petroleum products,...

ExxonMobil explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas, and manufactures and sells petroleum products, petrochemicals, and specialty products across Upstream, Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products segments. The company operates in the United States and most other countries, employed 58,000 workers at year-end 2025, and is pursuing lower-emission businesses including carbon capture, hydrogen, and lithium.

Related stocks: SU (Suncor Energy Inc.) · TTE (TotalEnergies SE) · PBR-A (Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrob) · BP (BP p.l.c.) · SHEL (Shell PLC)
Home Stocks XOM

Latest news

Latest News

MarketBeat47d ago
Yahoo Finance54d ago
MarketBeat54d agoAnalyst
The Globe and Mail55d agoAnalyst
Yahoo Finance55d ago
MarketBeat48d ago
Investing.com48d ago
Yahoo Finance48d ago
Seeking Alpha55d ago
Quiver Quantitative55d ago
Simplywall.st46d ago
Yahoo Finance47d ago
StockStory47d agoEarnings
GuruFocus49d ago
Seeking Alpha49d agoEarnings
Seeking Alpha49d agoEarnings
The Motley Fool56d ago
Benzinga56d ago
Yahoo Finance52d ago
MarketBeat52d ago
Loading more...