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WUWestern Union Company (The)Sell4.7·$7.57+3.42%
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Western Union Company (The) (WU) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Financial Services · Credit Services

Sell if holding. At $7.57, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.9): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 4.6%.

Western Union is a cross-border money movement company with a global retail agent network in 200+ countries and territories. Consumer Money Transfer (87% of 2025 revenue) drives the business through agent-based transactions; Consumer Services (13%) covers bill payments, money... Read more

$7.57+4.6% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#29 of 29 Credit Services
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield12.71%
IncomeYield12.84%(5y avg 7.76%)Payout69.12%
Stop $7.11Target $7.90(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$9.08+19.9%13 analysts
$7.90our TP
$7.57price
$9.08mean
$7
$11

Sell if holding. At $7.57, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.9): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 4.6%. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 23, MACD bearish. Score 4.7/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 45d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 202645d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 64%
Risks
Thin upside margin: 4.6%
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.9): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)5.4
P/E (Fwd)3.8
Mkt Cap$2.3B
EV/EBITDA4.5
Profit Mgn10.9%
ROE47.7%
Rev Growth-0.1%
Beta0.49
Dividend12.84%
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.15bullish
IV103%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -0.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
2.5
Declining revenue: -0%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Macd
3.2
Volume
3.2
Obv
5.7
Capitulation risk (RSI 23, below 200MA)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
3.5
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
6.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MDividend: 1284.0%
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5A.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 45d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
23 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $7.24Resistance $8.61

Price Targets

$7
$8
A.Upside+4.4%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.8 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (45d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WU stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $7.57, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.9): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 4.6%. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 23, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $7.11. Score 4.7/10, high confidence.

What is the WU stock price target?

Take-profit target: $7.90 (+4.6% upside). Prior stop was $7.11. Stop-loss: $7.11.

What are the risks of investing in WU?

Thin upside margin: 4.6%; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.9): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is WU overvalued or undervalued?

Western Union Company (The) trades at a P/E of 5.4 (forward 3.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WU?

26 analysts cover WU with a consensus score of 2.3/5. Average price target: $9.

What does Western Union Company (The) do?Western Union is a cross-border money movement company with a global retail agent network in 200+ countries and...

Western Union is a cross-border money movement company with a global retail agent network in 200+ countries and territories. Consumer Money Transfer (87% of 2025 revenue) drives the business through agent-based transactions; Consumer Services (13%) covers bill payments, money orders, and digital wallets.

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