Vitesse Energy pairs a high statistical asymmetry ratio (5.09) and notable insider buying with a technically bearish FALLING_KNIFE setup where momentum and death-cross gates have both failed, a quality score below the engine's floor, and elevated short interest into its next earnings report.
Thesis pillars
- High Asymmetry Ratio Despite Downtrend→Stable
- Falling Knife Death Cross Hard Block→Stable
- Quality Below Floor Fails Rule Of 40→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Vitesse Energy, Inc. (VTS) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge
Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.97: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 4.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 6.00; Below-average business quality.
Vitesse Energy is a non-operator energy company owning working and royalty interests in oil and gas wells operated by others, concentrated in the Williston Basin of North Dakota and Montana plus Colorado and Wyoming acreage. As of December 31, 2025 it held a 3.5% average working... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.97: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 4.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 6.00; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 27d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
About Vitesse Energy, Inc.
About Vitesse Energy, Inc.
Vitesse Energy held estimated proved reserves of 47,800 MBoe (64% oil) with a PV-10 of $472.7 million as of December 31, 2025, generating average daily production of 17,444 Boe/d from a non-operated working interest portfolio spanning 6,402 gross wells. The Williston Basin of North Dakota and Montana accounted for 96% of total proved reserves, with the remaining acreage in Colorado and Wyoming's Central Rockies.
Vitesse generates revenue as a non-operator, owning an average 3.5% working interest across its well portfolio and relying on more than 30 third-party operators to drill, complete, and market production; the differential between wellhead realized prices and NYMEX spot benchmarks reflects embedded transportation and marketing costs borne by those operators. The company has closed roughly 175 acquisitions totaling more than $785 million since its 2014 inception, funding growth primarily through smaller, discounted non-operated lease and wellbore positions rather than large contiguous acreage packages, supplemented by larger deals such as the March 2025 all-stock Lucero Acquisition. Vitesse targets a Net Debt to Adjusted EBITDA ratio below 1.0 and hedges a portion of expected oil and natural gas production with swaps, collars, and puts to protect its dividend, paying $92.1 million in shareholder distributions during 2025, up from $63.6 million in 2024.
Show full overview
Vitesse's single-basin dependence is explicit in its own risk disclosure: the majority of its producing properties sit in the Williston Basin, which the 10-K says makes the company 'vulnerable to risks associated with operating in one major geographic area.' That concentration sharpens at the county level — approximately 79% of Vitesse's 53,301 net acres lie in just four North Dakota counties (Dunn, McKenzie, Mountrail, and Williams) — so a regional disruption such as the natural gas gathering and processing constraints the Williston Basin experienced in 2019, or an operator-specific slowdown, could disproportionately affect production versus a geographically diversified E&P peer.
See also: Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
From Vitesse Energy, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicNorth Dakota and Montana (Williston Basin) proved reserves96%10-K Item 1: 'Our estimated proved reserves in North Dakota and Montana as of December 31, 2025 were 45,860 MBoe (65% oil), which represented 96% of our total estimated proved reserves'
- HIGHGeographicDunn, McKenzie, Mountrail, and Williams Counties net acres79%10-K Item 1: 'located in Dunn, McKenzie, Mountrail, and Williams Counties, North Dakota. Approximately 79% of our 53,301 net acres as of December 31, 2025 are in the above counties'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.97: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 4.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 6.00; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49. Prior stop was $15.03. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $20.19 (+26.4% upside). Prior stop was $15.03. Stop-loss: $15.03.
Concentration risk — Geographic: North Dakota and Montana (Williston Basin) proved reserves (96.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Dunn, McKenzie, Mountrail, and Williams Counties net acres (79.0%); Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0).
Vitesse Energy, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 15.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
8 analysts cover VTS with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $24.
What does Vitesse Energy, Inc. do?Vitesse Energy is a non-operator energy company owning working and royalty interests in oil and gas wells operated by...
Vitesse Energy is a non-operator energy company owning working and royalty interests in oil and gas wells operated by others, concentrated in the Williston Basin of North Dakota and Montana plus Colorado and Wyoming acreage. As of December 31, 2025 it held a 3.5% average working interest across 6,402 gross wells (226.1 net), with proved reserves of 47,800 MBoe (64% oil) and a $472.7 million PV-10. Vitesse paid $92.1 million in dividends in 2025.