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MGYMagnolia Oil & Gas CorporationHold6.2·$27.11-1.85%
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Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $27.11, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: South Texas; Concentration risk — Customer: two largest purchasers (61.0%).

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the acquisition, development, exploration, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the United States. The company's properties are located primarily in Karnes... Read more

$27.11+12.3% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#15 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield4.17%
IncomeYield2.28%Payout35.55%sustainable
Stop $25.49Target $30.44(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$33.82+24.8%17 analysts
$30.44our TP
$27.11price
$33.82mean
$38

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $27.11, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: South Texas; Concentration risk — Customer: two largest purchasers (61.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: South Texas
Concentration risk — Customer: two largest purchasers (61.0%)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.0
P/E (Fwd)10.5
Mkt Cap$5.3B
EV/EBITDA6.1
Profit Mgn24.4%
ROE16.5%
Rev Growth2.3%
Beta0.69
Dividend2.28%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.88neutral
IV99%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicSouth Texas
    10-K Item 1A: 'Substantially all of Magnolia's producing properties are geographically concentrated in South Texas'
  • HIGHCustomertwo largest purchasers61%
    10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, there were two purchasers who accounted for an aggregate 61% of the total revenue attributable to Magnolia's assets'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
2.5
Growth Rank
3.2
Quality Rank
6.3
GatesMomentum 4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.7>=4.5A.R:R 2.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $26.25Resistance $30.56

Price Targets

$25
$30
A.Upside+12.3%
A.R:R2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Analyst Consensus

Analysts23
Consensus3.7/5
Avg Target$34

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MGY stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $27.11, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: South Texas; Concentration risk — Customer: two largest purchasers (61.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $30.44 (+12.3%), stop $25.49 (−6.4%), A.R:R 2.1:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MGY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $30.44 (+12.3% upside). Target $30.44 (+12.3%), stop $25.49 (−6.4%), A.R:R 2.1:1. Stop-loss: $25.49.

What are the risks of investing in MGY?

Concentration risk — Geographic: South Texas; Concentration risk — Customer: two largest purchasers (61.0%).

Is MGY overvalued or undervalued?

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation trades at a P/E of 16.0 (forward 10.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MGY?

23 analysts cover MGY with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $34.

What does Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation do?Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the acquisition, development,...

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the acquisition, development, exploration, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the United States. The company's properties are located primarily in Karnes County and the Giddings area in South Texas comprising the Eagle Ford Shale and the Austin Chalk formation. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

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