Riley Exploration Permian is a fast-growing Permian oil producer with 94% YoY growth, 25% margins and a 5.8x forward P/E, but the price is 12.1% above the analyst target, RSI is overbought at 85 and 3 of the last 4 earnings reports missed.
Thesis pillars
- Permian Geographic Concentration↓Deteriorating
- Explosive Growth Industry Leader→Stable
- High Quality Compounder Margins→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 4, 2026
Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. (REPX) Stock Analysis
Inst Constrain edge
Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $52.11 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Northwest Shelf within the Permian Basin.
Riley Exploration Permian, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in Texas and New Mexico. Its acreage is primarily located on contiguous blocks in Yoakum... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $52.11 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Northwest Shelf within the Permian Basin. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 7.2/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Riley Exploration Permian, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. (REPX) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release - Yahoo Fina — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. (REPX) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release - finance.ya — finance.yahoo.com positive
- NEWS Riley Exploration Permian (NYSE:REPX) Sets New 52-Week High - Here's Why - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Riley (REPX) Results Check: The EPS Result Is Below Expectation on the Day; Investor Response: The Immediate Price Respo — vinanet.vn negative
- NEWS Riley Exploration Permian Inc (REPX) CFO & EVP Strategy Philip R - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:52Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicNorthwest Shelf within the Permian Basin10-K Item 1A: 'Substantially all of our producing properties are located in the Northwest Shelf within the Permian Basin of West Texas and Southeastern New Mexico ... vulnerable to risks associated with operating in one major geographic area.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-13Item 5.02LOWStockholders approved the Second Amended and Restated 2021 Long Term Incentive Plan on May 12, 2026, increasing shares available for issuance by 2,800,000 (to 5,137,022). Routine equity-plan amendment; no executive departure.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-13Item 5.07LOWRiley Exploration Permian held its Annual Meeting on May 12, 2026; stockholders voted on four proposals including the Long Term Incentive Plan amendment. No adverse or contested results cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $52.11 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Northwest Shelf within the Permian Basin. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $48.46. Score 7.2/10, high confidence.
Analyst target $47.60 reached (−8.7% from $52.11); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $48.46. Stop-loss: $48.46.
Concentration risk — Geographic: Northwest Shelf within the Permian Basin; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.5% away).
Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. trades at a P/E of 9.3 (forward 5.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts cover REPX with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $56.
What does Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. do?Riley Exploration Permian, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the acquisition, exploration,...
Riley Exploration Permian, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in Texas and New Mexico. Its acreage is primarily located on contiguous blocks in Yoakum County, Texas; and oil and natural gas properties in the Yeso trend of the Permian Basin in Eddy County, New Mexico. The company is headquartered in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.