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VERXVertex, Inc.Sell5.2·$12.22-4.46%
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Vertex, Inc. (VERX) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.22: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 2.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.62; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Vertex provides indirect tax compliance software and automation for global commerce, serving 4,867 direct customers including the majority of the Fortune 500 across 195+ countries with $137,867 ARR per customer as of year-end 2025. Revenue is primarily recurring... Read more

$12.22+33.2% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#80 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield4.81%
Stop $11.57Target $16.13(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.5:1
Analyst target$18.54+51.7%13 analysts
$16.13our TP
$12.22price
$18.54mean
$25

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.22: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 2.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.62; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 55d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and 8k serious 2.05. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202655d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)12.4
Mkt Cap$2.1B
EV/EBITDA137.1
Profit Mgn-0.8%
ROE-2.9%
Rev Growth11.1%
Beta0.80
DividendNone
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.62bearish
IV126%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-28Item 2.05MEDIUM
    Vertex announced a global Value Creation Plan approved April 28, 2026: reduction in force of approximately 170 employees (~9% of global workforce). Estimated pre-tax charges of $6M–$8M, primarily employee severance. Majority to be recognized in Q1 fiscal 2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
1.3
Volume
3.1
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -12.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
2.5
Growth Rank
3.3
Value Rank
7.0

Unprofitable operations — net margin -0.8%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
0.3
Current Ratio
3.4
Moat
5.8
Fcf Quality
6.1
Piotroski F
6.7
Gross Margin
8.9
FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 13%, FCF yield 4.8%)
GatesMomentum 2.2<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)8K SERIOUS 2.05A.R:R 2.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 55d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
43 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $11.93Resistance $14.96

Price Targets

$12
$16
A.Upside+32.0%
A.R:R2.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)
! momentum at 2.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (55d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VERX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.22: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 2.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.62; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $11.57. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VERX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.13 (+33.2% upside). Prior stop was $11.57. Stop-loss: $11.57.

What are the risks of investing in VERX?

Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0).

Is VERX overvalued or undervalued?

Vertex, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 12.4). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VERX?

22 analysts cover VERX with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $19.

What does Vertex, Inc. do?Vertex provides indirect tax compliance software and automation for global commerce, serving 4,867 direct customers...

Vertex provides indirect tax compliance software and automation for global commerce, serving 4,867 direct customers including the majority of the Fortune 500 across 195+ countries with $137,867 ARR per customer as of year-end 2025. Revenue is primarily recurring subscription-based. No single customer exceeded 10% of total revenue in 2025 or 2024.

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