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Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $19.80 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.7): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Upbound Group, Inc., a technology and data-driven company, provides financial solutions in the United States, Puerto Rico, and Mexico. It operates through four segments: Acima, Rent-A-Center, Brigit, and Mexico. The company also provides furniture, including mattresses, tires,... Read more

$19.80+26.1% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#15 of 96 Software - Application
Stop $18.29Target $24.79(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.0:1
Analyst target$28.50+43.9%7 analysts
$24.79our TP
$19.80price
$28.50mean
$41

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $19.80 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.7): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Analyst upside: 26%
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.7): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.8
P/E (Fwd)4.2
Mkt Cap$1.2B
EV/EBITDA5.9
Profit Mgn1.6%
ROE11.1%
Rev Growth10.9%
Beta1.86
Dividend7.90%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.33bullish
IV64%elevated
Max Pain$3-87.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.9
Rsi
3.9
Ma Position
6.0
Macd
7.1
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.8<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $17.05Resistance $20.99

Price Targets

$18
$25
A.Upside+25.2%
A.R:R2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UPBD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $19.80 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.7): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61. Prior stop was $18.29. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the UPBD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $24.79 (+26.1% upside). Prior stop was $18.29. Stop-loss: $18.29.

What are the risks of investing in UPBD?

Leverage penalty (D/E 2.7): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum.

Is UPBD overvalued or undervalued?

Upbound Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.8 (forward 4.2). TrendMatrix value score: 9.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about UPBD?

13 analysts cover UPBD with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $29.

What does Upbound Group, Inc. do?Upbound Group, Inc., a technology and data-driven company, provides financial solutions in the United States, Puerto...

Upbound Group, Inc., a technology and data-driven company, provides financial solutions in the United States, Puerto Rico, and Mexico. It operates through four segments: Acima, Rent-A-Center, Brigit, and Mexico. The company also provides furniture, including mattresses, tires, consumer electronics, appliances, tools, handbags, computers, and accessories. In addition, it offers merchandise on an installment sales basis; and the lease-to-own transaction to consumers who do not qualify for traditional financing, the lease-to-own transaction through staffed or unstaffed kiosks located in third-party retailer's locations, and other virtual options. Further, the company provides various financial health products and tools through mobile and web applications. It operates retail installment sales stores under the Get It Now and Home Choice names; lease-to-own and franchising location under the Rent-A-Centre and RimTyme trade names; and company-owned stores, franchise stores, and e-commerce platform through rentacenter.com, getitnowstores.com, and homechoicestores.com. The company was formerly known as Rent-A-Center, Inc. and changed its name to Upbound Group, Inc. in February 2023. Upbound Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1986 and is based in Plano, Texas.

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