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Tyler Technologies, Inc. (TYL) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $344.37: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Concentration risk — Customer: state, county, and city governments.

Tyler Technologies is the leading provider of integrated software and services for U.S. public sector entities including cities, counties, states, courts, and schools. Revenue is derived substantially all from government clients through recurring SaaS subscriptions and... Read more

$344.37+14.7% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#83 of 96 Software - Application
Stop $320.05Target $394.84(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.7:1
Analyst target$438.71+27.4%21 analysts
$394.84our TP
$344.37price
$438.71mean
$650

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $344.37: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Concentration risk — Customer: state, county, and city governments. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 63. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, news boost analyst cluster(3), earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Recent Analyst detected in news
Recent Analyst Cluster(3) detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: state, county, and city governments
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)47.2
P/E (Fwd)23.9
Mkt Cap$14.4B
EV/EBITDA31.3
Profit Mgn13.3%
ROE8.9%
Rev Growth8.6%
Beta0.92
DividendNone
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.48bullish
IV54%elevated
Max Pain$230-33.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerstate, county, and city governments
    10-K Item 1A: 'We derive substantially all of our revenues from sales of software and services to state, county, and city governments, other federal or municipal agencies'
  • MEDIUMSupplierAmazon Web Services (AWS)
    10-K Item 1A: 'We rely on third-party providers—including Amazon Web Services (AWS)—for hosting services and other technology-related services needed to deliver certain of our cloud solutions'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
1.1
Bollinger
3.1
Gap
4.0
Support Resistance
4.3

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.4
Revenue Growth
4.6
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.9>=5.5A.R:R 1.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70NEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(3)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 89d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
63 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $314.07Resistance $366.63

Price Targets

$320
$395
A.Upside+14.7%
A.R:R1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Analyst Consensus

Analysts27
Consensus4.1/5
Avg Target$439

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (89d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TYL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $344.37: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Concentration risk — Customer: state, county, and city governments. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 63. Prior stop was $320.05. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TYL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $394.84 (+14.7% upside). Prior stop was $320.05. Stop-loss: $320.05.

What are the risks of investing in TYL?

Concentration risk — Customer: state, county, and city governments; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Weak growth.

Is TYL overvalued or undervalued?

Tyler Technologies, Inc. trades at a P/E of 47.2 (forward 23.9). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TYL?

27 analysts cover TYL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $439.

What does Tyler Technologies, Inc. do?Tyler Technologies is the leading provider of integrated software and services for U.S. public sector entities...

Tyler Technologies is the leading provider of integrated software and services for U.S. public sector entities including cities, counties, states, courts, and schools. Revenue is derived substantially all from government clients through recurring SaaS subscriptions and on-premises maintenance contracts for mission-critical back-office systems.

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