Autodesk combines a wide economic moat, return on equity of 50%, free cash flow conversion at 209% of net income, and a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak with a valuation that screens attractively at a forward price-to-earnings of 13.9x and PEG of 0.76 — offering roughly 48% upside to the analyst consensus target at a reward-to-risk ratio of nearly 8-to-1; the principal obstacle is an ongoing technical breakdown that must stabilize before the fundamental setup can be realized.
Thesis pillars
- Growth At Attractive Valuation↓Deteriorating
- International Revenue Concentration↓Deteriorating
- Wide Moat Cash Conversion Excellence→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Technology · Software - Application
Wait for pullback to $226.69. Recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $233.97. Engine's entry $226.69 (Buy At Market Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: international revenue (64.0%); Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Autodesk provides subscription-based 3D design and engineering software across AECO, manufacturing, and media/entertainment verticals, selling globally through direct and indirect channels. In fiscal 2026, 64% of net revenue came from international markets; AutoCAD-based... Read more
Wait for pullback to $226.69. Recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $233.97. Engine's entry $226.69 (Buy At Market Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: international revenue (64.0%); Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 65. Growth is outpacing valuation and the technical setup has confirmed a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.91, quality 8.5/10, growth 8.6/10). (held at prior verdict — engine reading is near the momentum/RSI threshold; will commit on clearer signal). Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 9/11 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, positive momentum, news events none recent, earnings proximity 28d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear, sector concentration cap sector=technology 6/10 self excluded). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-30Recent Developments — Autodesk, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Adobe vs. Autodesk: Which Creative Software Stock Is the Better Buy? - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Analysts Offer Insights on Technology Companies: Enphase Energy (ENPH), ASE Technology Holding Co (ASX) and Autodesk (AD — The Globe and Mail neutral
- NEWS Autodesk (ADSK) Q1 Earnings Report Preview: What To Look For - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS Autodesk (ADSK) Q1 Earnings Report Preview: What To Look For - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Is Autodesk (ADSK) One of the Best Big Tech Stocks to Buy According to Wall Street Analysts? - Insider Monkey — Insider Monkey positive
Generated 2026-07-30T23:08:42Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicinternational revenue64%10-K Item 1A: 'International net revenue represented 64% of our net revenue for both fiscal 2026 and 2025'
- LOWCustomerTD Synnex14%10-K Item 1: 'TD Synnex Corporation...accounted for 14%, 33%, and 39% of our net revenue'
- MEDIUMProductAutoCAD-based products10-K Item 1A: 'Deriving a substantial portion of our net revenue from a small number of solutions, including our AutoCAD-based software products and collections'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-24Item 5.02LOWDirector Stephen Milligan informed the Board on April 20, 2026 of his intention not to stand for re-election at the 2026 Annual Meeting. Omar Abbosh nominated as replacement. No reason cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $226.69. Recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $233.97. Engine's entry $226.69 (Buy At Market Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: international revenue (64.0%); Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 65. Growth is outpacing valuation and the technical setup has confirmed a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.91, quality 8.5/10, growth 8.6/10). (held at prior verdict — engine reading is near the momentum/RSI threshold; will commit on clearer signal). Target $288.78 (+23.4%), stop $206.81 (−13.1%), A.R:R 1.5:1. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $288.78 (+22.9% upside). Target $288.78 (+23.4%), stop $206.81 (−13.1%), A.R:R 1.5:1. Stop-loss: $206.81.
Concentration risk — Geographic: international revenue (64.0%); Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Autodesk, Inc. trades at a P/E of 34.6 (forward 17.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
41 analysts cover ADSK with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $314.
What does Autodesk, Inc. do?Autodesk provides subscription-based 3D design and engineering software across AECO, manufacturing, and...
Autodesk provides subscription-based 3D design and engineering software across AECO, manufacturing, and media/entertainment verticals, selling globally through direct and indirect channels. In fiscal 2026, 64% of net revenue came from international markets; AutoCAD-based products and collections represent a substantial portion of net revenue.