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ADSKAutodesk, Inc.Buy Wait6.5·$198.91-3.24%
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Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) Stock Analysis

Oversold Bounce setup · Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $221.81 but weak momentum; below 200-day MA (death cross); recent C-suite change still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: international revenue (64.0%); Negative momentum.

Autodesk provides subscription-based 3D design and engineering software across AECO, manufacturing, and media/entertainment verticals, selling globally through direct and indirect channels. In fiscal 2026, 64% of net revenue came from international markets; AutoCAD-based... Read more

$198.91+55.8% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#7 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield7.05%
Entry $221.81(Default 5pct Sticky)Stop $199.51Target $293.73(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 4.3:1
Analyst target$319.27+60.5%32 analysts
$293.73our TP
$198.91price
$319.27mean
$456

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $221.81 but weak momentum; below 200-day MA (death cross); recent C-suite change still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: international revenue (64.0%); Negative momentum. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 27, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.85, quality 8.5/10, growth 8.6/10). Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 27, 202676d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: international revenue (64.0%)
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)30.0
P/E (Fwd)14.4
Mkt Cap$43.4B
EV/EBITDA20.2
Profit Mgn19.5%
ROE50.4%
Rev Growth18.4%
Beta1.29
DividendNone
Rating analysts40

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.57bearish
IV55%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicinternational revenue64%
    10-K Item 1A: 'International net revenue represented 64% of our net revenue for both fiscal 2026 and 2025'
  • LOWCustomerTD Synnex14%
    10-K Item 1: 'TD Synnex Corporation...accounted for 14%, 33%, and 39% of our net revenue'
  • MEDIUMProductAutoCAD-based products
    10-K Item 1A: 'Deriving a substantial portion of our net revenue from a small number of solutions, including our AutoCAD-based software products and collections'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-24Item 5.02LOW
    Director Stephen Milligan informed the Board on April 20, 2026 of his intention not to stand for re-election at the 2026 Annual Meeting. Omar Abbosh nominated as replacement. No reason cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.0
Vol Acceleration
3.0
Volume
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 27, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.1%/30d — confirmed downtrendVolume surge (2.0x avg) on selloff
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 4.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 76d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEAROversold BounceSuitability: Moderate
RSI
27 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $194.47Resistance $251.16

Price Targets

$200
$222
$294
A.Upside+47.7%
A.R:R4.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.9%
Max %1.8%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-27 (76d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADSK stock a buy right now?

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $221.81 but weak momentum; below 200-day MA (death cross); recent C-suite change still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: international revenue (64.0%); Negative momentum. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 27, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.85, quality 8.5/10, growth 8.6/10). Target $293.73 (+47.7%), stop $199.51 (−-0.3%), Setup A.R:R 8.0:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ADSK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $293.73 (+55.8% upside). Target $293.73 (+47.7%), stop $199.51 (−-0.3%), Setup A.R:R 8.0:1. Stop-loss: $199.51.

What are the risks of investing in ADSK?

Concentration risk — Geographic: international revenue (64.0%); Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is ADSK overvalued or undervalued?

Autodesk, Inc. trades at a P/E of 30.0 (forward 14.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about ADSK?

40 analysts cover ADSK with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $319.

What does Autodesk, Inc. do?Autodesk provides subscription-based 3D design and engineering software across AECO, manufacturing, and...

Autodesk provides subscription-based 3D design and engineering software across AECO, manufacturing, and media/entertainment verticals, selling globally through direct and indirect channels. In fiscal 2026, 64% of net revenue came from international markets; AutoCAD-based products and collections represent a substantial portion of net revenue.

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