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TBNTamboran Resources CorporationSell5.4·$32.46+1.56%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Tamboran Resources screens as a quality-and-momentum breakdown — cash-burning operations, declining revenue, margin compression, and a failed momentum gate — with the engine's own action note calling for an exit, offset only by a large headline analyst-upside figure and modest insider buying.

Thesis pillars

  • Quality Below Investable FloorStable
  • Momentum Gate FailureStable
  • Value Trap Revenue DeclineStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBN) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5QualityModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $32.46: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 5.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Tamboran Resources Corporation, a natural gas company, engages in developing unconventional gas resources in the northern territory of Australia. Its assets include a 25% non-operated working interest in EP 161; a 38.75% working interest in EPs 76, 98, and 117; and a 100%... Read more

$32.46+52.3% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#39 of 48 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-12.63%
Stop $30.19Target $49.44(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 5.4:1
Analyst target$56.83+75.1%6 analysts
$49.44our TP
$32.46price
$56.83mean
$66

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $32.46: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 5.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-08

Recent Developments — Tamboran Resources Corporation

Latest news

Generated 2026-07-08T21:03:53Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Sep 24, 202679d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Beetaloo Basin
Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-43.1% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -8.7%)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-59.8
Mkt Cap$1.1B
EV/EBITDA-34.1
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-8.4%
Rev Growth
Beta0.25
DividendNone
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicBeetaloo Basin
    10-K Item 1A: 'All of our assets and operations are located in the Beetaloo, making us vulnerable to risks associated with operating in one geographic area'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
4.8
Current Ratio
7.0
Cash-burning (FCF negative)No competitive moatQuality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
GatesMomentum 4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.7>=4.5A.R:R 5.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 79d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
27 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $30.53Resistance $40.37

Price Targets

$30
$49
A.Upside+52.3%
A.R:R5.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-43.1% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -8.7%)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-09-24 (79d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TBN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $32.46: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 5.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $30.19. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TBN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $49.44 (+52.3% upside). Prior stop was $30.19. Stop-loss: $30.19.

What are the risks of investing in TBN?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Beetaloo Basin; Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-43.1% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -8.7%).

Is TBN overvalued or undervalued?

Tamboran Resources Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -59.8). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TBN?

9 analysts cover TBN with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $57.

What does Tamboran Resources Corporation do?Tamboran Resources Corporation, a natural gas company, engages in developing unconventional gas resources in the...

Tamboran Resources Corporation, a natural gas company, engages in developing unconventional gas resources in the northern territory of Australia. Its assets include a 25% non-operated working interest in EP 161; a 38.75% working interest in EPs 76, 98, and 117; and a 100% working interest in EPs 136 and 143, as well as EP (A) 197, located in the Betaloo Basin. Tamboran Resources Corporation was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Sydney, Australia.

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Benzinga6d agoEarnings