Value
9.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Attractively valued
TBN · Why this verdict
Why Tamboran Resources (TBN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Tamboran Resources is a pre-revenue Beetaloo gas developer with 93% analyst upside, but it burns cash, has a quality score of 2.0/10, missed EPS in 3 of 4 quarters and is 42% off its high with weak momentum.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Analysts see 93% upside, with a $50.96 target against a $30.30 price. Sentiment breakdown | Price should move toward the $50.96 target as development milestones are delivered over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light, so the signal is dampened, and the target depends on a development program that has not yet generated revenue. | ||
The company is cash-burning with negative free cash flow, reported revenue of $0 in each of the last four quarters, and a quality score of 2.0 versus a 4.0 floor. Quality breakdown | Quarterly revenue should start to appear near the $1.4M estimate and quality should rise toward 4.0. | →Stable |
| CounterA pre-production developer is expected to burn cash, so weak quality scores may simply reflect the stage of the business. | ||
EPS missed estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including -0.60 vs -0.28 estimated, with an average surprise of -31.6%. Earnings | Losses per share should come in at or below estimates in the 2026-11-12 report. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe February 2026 quarter beat (-0.27 vs -0.36), so losses may be narrowing as spending normalizes. | ||
All value is tied to one location, with a high-severity geographic concentration risk in the Beetaloo basin. Bear case | Development results from the basin should confirm commercial flow rates and move the project toward first revenue. | →Stable |
| CounterAppraisal results can disappoint, and a single-basin exposure leaves no diversification if regulation, cost or logistics turn adverse. | ||
Momentum is weak at 3.2/10 with falling on-balance volume, although the 200-day average is still rising 4.2% over 30 days, which points to a pullback within an uptrend. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score should recover above 4.5 and price should hold above the rising 200-day average. | ↑Improving |
| CounterPrice is 42% off its 52-week high with distribution volume, which may signal a longer decline rather than a pullback. | ||
Analysts see 93% upside, with a $50.96 target against a $30.30 price.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should move toward the $50.96 target as development milestones are delivered over 12 months.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light, so the signal is dampened, and the target depends on a development program that has not yet generated revenue.
The company is cash-burning with negative free cash flow, reported revenue of $0 in each of the last four quarters, and a quality score of 2.0 versus a 4.0 floor.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should start to appear near the $1.4M estimate and quality should rise toward 4.0.
CounterA pre-production developer is expected to burn cash, so weak quality scores may simply reflect the stage of the business.
EPS missed estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including -0.60 vs -0.28 estimated, with an average surprise of -31.6%.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Losses per share should come in at or below estimates in the 2026-11-12 report.
CounterThe February 2026 quarter beat (-0.27 vs -0.36), so losses may be narrowing as spending normalizes.
All value is tied to one location, with a high-severity geographic concentration risk in the Beetaloo basin.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Development results from the basin should confirm commercial flow rates and move the project toward first revenue.
CounterAppraisal results can disappoint, and a single-basin exposure leaves no diversification if regulation, cost or logistics turn adverse.
Momentum is weak at 3.2/10 with falling on-balance volume, although the 200-day average is still rising 4.2% over 30 days, which points to a pullback within an uptrend.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score should recover above 4.5 and price should hold above the rising 200-day average.
CounterPrice is 42% off its 52-week high with distribution volume, which may signal a longer decline rather than a pullback.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.8 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Cash-burning (FCF negative)
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 8.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.7 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 85%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 1.9 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.8 |
| support resistance | 5.2 |
| 52w position | 2.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.2 |
| days to cover | 8.1 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.7 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Earnings in 14 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:4.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:14d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
4.39
Upside
+61.2%
Downside
13.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.1B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.1B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Value at 9.0 and asymmetric R:R of 4.39.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.0, Sentiment at 7.7, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.4; the weakest are Quality at 2.0, Catalyst at 2.5, and Technical at 4.4. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.39 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Analyst Upside To Target
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $40 from the current $50.96.
- P2Cash Burning No Revenue
Trip ifQuarterly revenue stays below $1M through the next 2 quarters, from the current $0.
- P3Earnings Miss Pattern
Trip ifQuarterly loss per share exceeds the estimate in 2 consecutive quarters, from the current average surprise of -31.6%.
- P4Geographic Concentration Beetaloo
Trip ifBasin appraisal flow rates come in at less than 50% of project targets, or the development timeline slips more than 12 months.
- P5Weak Momentum Pullback
Trip ifPrice falls below the $28.18 stop-loss, with momentum score under 3.0 from the current 3.2.