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HLFHerbalife Ltd.Buy Wait6.2·$12.20+7.77%
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Herbalife Ltd. (HLF) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods

Wait for pullback to $10.78. BUY gates pass at $12.20, but elevated risk factors argues for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $10.78 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.

Herbalife is a global direct-selling nutrition company selling weight management (54.5%), targeted nutrition (30.0%), energy/sports/fitness (12.2%), and personal care products in 95 markets through approximately 6.4 million independent Members. Revenue comes from product sales... Read more

$12.20+33.6% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#2 of 26 Packaged Foods
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield29.74%
Entry $10.78(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $9.71Target $15.58(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 3.1:1Setup A.R:R 4.8:1
Analyst target$18.33+50.3%3 analysts
$15.58our TP
$12.20price
$18.33mean
$9
$25

Wait for pullback to $10.78. BUY gates pass at $12.20, but elevated risk factors argues for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $10.78 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 55d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-12
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202655d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Earnings estimates trending UP
Attractive valuation
Risks
Elevated risk factors

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)5.0
P/E (Fwd)3.6
Mkt Cap$1.2B
EV/EBITDA4.6
Profit Mgn4.7%
ROE
Rev Growth7.8%
Beta0.89
DividendNone
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.81bearish
IV108%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMProductFormula 1 Healthy Meal25%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our Formula 1 Nutritional Shake Mix, our best-selling product line, approximated 25% of our net sales for the year ended December 31, 2025.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-01Item 1.01MEDIUM
    Herbalife subsidiaries issued $800M of 7.750% Senior Secured Notes due May 1, 2033 on April 29, 2026, in a Rule 144A/Reg S private offering; semi-annual interest; first-lien secured; guaranteed by Company and subsidiaries.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-01Item 2.04LOW
    Issuance of $800M 7.750% Senior Secured Notes due 2033 on April 29, 2026 constitutes a triggering event creating a direct financial obligation under the new Indenture. Voluntary issuance without default.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
2.0
Bollinger
4.4
Support Resistance
5.2
Gates8K FLAG 2.04Momentum 6.4>=5.5A.R:R 3.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 55d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
43 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $11.18Resistance $13.29

Price Targets

$10
$11
$16
A.Upside+27.7%
A.R:R3.1:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)4.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.8%
Max %1.5%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (55d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HLF stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $10.78. BUY gates pass at $12.20, but elevated risk factors argues for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $10.78 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $15.58 (+27.7%), stop $9.71 (−25.6%), Setup A.R:R 4.8:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HLF stock price target?

Take-profit target: $15.58 (+33.6% upside). Target $15.58 (+27.7%), stop $9.71 (−25.6%), Setup A.R:R 4.8:1. Stop-loss: $9.71.

What are the risks of investing in HLF?

Elevated risk factors.

Is HLF overvalued or undervalued?

Herbalife Ltd. trades at a P/E of 5.0 (forward 3.6). TrendMatrix value score: 9.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about HLF?

8 analysts cover HLF with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $18.

What does Herbalife Ltd. do?Herbalife is a global direct-selling nutrition company selling weight management (54.5%), targeted nutrition (30.0%),...

Herbalife is a global direct-selling nutrition company selling weight management (54.5%), targeted nutrition (30.0%), energy/sports/fitness (12.2%), and personal care products in 95 markets through approximately 6.4 million independent Members. Revenue comes from product sales via the Member network; Formula 1 Healthy Meal approximates 25% of net sales. Products are manufactured at owned facilities (approximately 46% of inner nutrition) plus third-party contract manufacturers globally.

Related stocks: SENEA (Seneca Foods Corp.) · CENTA (Central Garden & Pet Company) · CENT (Central Garden & Pet Company) · BRBR (BellRing Brands, Inc.) · POST (Post Holdings, Inc.)
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