Value
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.1 |
| P/S | 8.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
- ▸Attractively valued
REPX · Why this verdict
Why Riley Exploration Permian (REPX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score7.2/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Riley Exploration Permian is a fast-growing Permian oil producer with 94% YoY growth, 25% margins and a 5.8x forward P/E, but the price is 12.1% above the analyst target, RSI is overbought at 85 and 3 of the last 4 earnings reports missed.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Operations are concentrated in the Northwest Shelf of the Permian Basin, flagged as a high geographic concentration risk. Bear case | Production from the Northwest Shelf holds and no regional disruption cuts output over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA single-basin position leaves the company fully exposed to local operational, regulatory or pricing problems with no diversification. | ||
Riley is growing 94% YoY and ranks as an industry growth leader, with quarterly revenue of $165.9M in June 2026 versus $85.4M a year earlier. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue stays above $150M, in line with the $160M next-quarter estimate. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue is lumpy and moves with commodity prices (for instance $97.3M in December 2025), so the 94% growth may reflect a price or acquisition effect rather than a durable trend. | ||
Riley shows strong margins of 25%, a wide economic moat, a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and a Rule of 40 reading of 122. Quality breakdown | Margins stay above 20% and the F-Score stays at 7 or higher over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterMargin strength depends on oil prices, and the current ratio score is only 1.8, so liquidity is thin if prices fall. | ||
The $54.18 price is above the $47.60 analyst target, with reported upside of -12.1%, negative reward-to-risk of -0.81 against 15.0% downside to the stop, and a price within 0.7% of its 52-week high. Upside pct | Analyst targets are raised above the current price as growth continues to be reported. | ↑Improving |
| CounterWith the target exceeded and RSI at 85, the stock is overbought and a reversion toward the target would be a meaningful decline. | ||
Riley missed EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including $1.54 versus $1.63 expected in August 2026, with an average surprise of -1.5%. Catalyst breakdown | EPS meets or beats estimates in the November 2026 report. | →Stable |
| CounterA longer history of misses (9 of the last 12 reports) shows analysts systematically overestimate earnings, so another miss is likely. | ||
Operations are concentrated in the Northwest Shelf of the Permian Basin, flagged as a high geographic concentration risk.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Production from the Northwest Shelf holds and no regional disruption cuts output over 12 months.
CounterA single-basin position leaves the company fully exposed to local operational, regulatory or pricing problems with no diversification.
Riley is growing 94% YoY and ranks as an industry growth leader, with quarterly revenue of $165.9M in June 2026 versus $85.4M a year earlier.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue stays above $150M, in line with the $160M next-quarter estimate.
CounterRevenue is lumpy and moves with commodity prices (for instance $97.3M in December 2025), so the 94% growth may reflect a price or acquisition effect rather than a durable trend.
Riley shows strong margins of 25%, a wide economic moat, a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and a Rule of 40 reading of 122.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins stay above 20% and the F-Score stays at 7 or higher over the next 12 months.
CounterMargin strength depends on oil prices, and the current ratio score is only 1.8, so liquidity is thin if prices fall.
The $54.18 price is above the $47.60 analyst target, with reported upside of -12.1%, negative reward-to-risk of -0.81 against 15.0% downside to the stop, and a price within 0.7% of its 52-week high.
↑ImprovingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised above the current price as growth continues to be reported.
CounterWith the target exceeded and RSI at 85, the stock is overbought and a reversion toward the target would be a meaningful decline.
Riley missed EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including $1.54 versus $1.63 expected in August 2026, with an average surprise of -1.5%.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- EPS meets or beats estimates in the November 2026 report.
CounterA longer history of misses (9 of the last 12 reports) shows analysts systematically overestimate earnings, so another miss is likely.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.6 |
| ROA | 6.8 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 1.8 |
| FCF quality | 7.7 |
| Moat | 7.6 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 25%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Rule of 40: 122 (elite)
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 94% YoY
Momentum
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.3 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.5 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 75)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 6.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 7.2 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $721,713 (0.063% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.8 |
| quality rank | 7.1 |
| growth rank | 9.4 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.7 |
| support resistance | 1.3 |
| 52w position | 9.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.9 |
| days to cover | 6.8 |
| volatility | 3.6 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.9 |
| beta | 6.8 |
| debt equity | 8.3 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.8 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
- ▸Dividend: 3.2%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Fundamentals strong but target reached (-8.7% upside). Wait for pullback. | News modifier -2 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_VALUE_MOS33|V8:TARGET_REACHED|L3:NEWS_MOD=-2Passed (5)
- MOMENTUM:7.4>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.58
Upside
-8.7%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.2B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.2B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -0.6=NEGATIVE outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of -0.58.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.4, and Quality at 7.9; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.7, Technical at 4.1, and Insider at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.58 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Explosive Growth Industry Leader
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 25% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2High Quality Compounder Margins
Trip ifNet margin falls below 15% from the current 25%.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls below the $50.66 stop level while the analyst target stays below $50.
- P4Earnings Miss Pattern
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Permian Geographic Concentration
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $110M for 2 consecutive quarters.