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PBRPetroleo Brasileiro S.A. PetrobBuy Wait5.6·$18.16-0.41%
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Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrob (PBR) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated

Wait for pullback to $17.84. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $18.16. Engine's entry $17.84 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 9.2%; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras explores, produces, and sells oil and gas in Brazil, China, the United States, the Americas, Asia, Europe, Singapore, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Exploration and Production; Refining, Transportation & Marketing;... Read more

$18.16+11.3% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#9 of 17 Oil & Gas Integrated
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield70.55%
IncomeYield9.63%(5y avg 22.92%)Payout41.58%sustainable
Entry $17.84(Support Atr Sticky)Stop $17.04Target $19.84(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.8:1Setup A.R:R 2.8:1
Analyst target$22.81+25.6%14 analysts
$19.84our TP
$18.16price
$22.81mean
$29

Wait for pullback to $17.84. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $18.16. Engine's entry $17.84 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 9.2%; Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Deep value: 61% margin of safety. Extreme undervaluation. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 55d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-12
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202655d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 61%
Risks
Thin upside margin: 9.2%
Consecutive earnings misses (3)
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)5.8
P/E (Fwd)4.4
Mkt Cap$117.5B
EV/EBITDA2.2
Profit Mgn21.6%
ROE25.6%
Rev Growth0.4%
Beta-0.16
Dividend9.63%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.91neutral
IV46%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.6
Revenue Growth
2.6

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
2.8
Dividend Safety
4.8
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
6.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesMomentum 5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.2>=4.5A.R:R 1.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 55d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
21 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $17.63Resistance $20.59

Price Targets

$17
$18
$20
A.Upside+9.3%
A.R:R1.8:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %1.3%
Max %2.5%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (55d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PBR stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $17.84. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $18.16. Engine's entry $17.84 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 9.2%; Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Deep value: 61% margin of safety. Extreme undervaluation. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $19.84 (+9.3%), stop $17.04 (−6.6%), Setup A.R:R 2.8:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PBR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $19.84 (+11.3% upside). Target $19.84 (+9.3%), stop $17.04 (−6.6%), Setup A.R:R 2.8:1. Stop-loss: $17.04.

What are the risks of investing in PBR?

Thin upside margin: 9.2%; Consecutive earnings misses (3); Weak growth.

Is PBR overvalued or undervalued?

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrob trades at a P/E of 5.8 (forward 4.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about PBR?

18 analysts cover PBR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $23.

What does Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrob do?Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras explores, produces, and sells oil and gas in Brazil, China, the United States, the...

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras explores, produces, and sells oil and gas in Brazil, China, the United States, the Americas, Asia, Europe, Singapore, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Exploration and Production; Refining, Transportation & Marketing; and Gas & Low Carbon Energies. The Exploration and Production segment explores, develops, and produces crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas primarily for supplies to the domestic refineries. Its Refining, Transportation and Marketing segment engages in the refining, logistics, transport, acquisition, and export of crude oil; trading of oil products; and production of fertilizers, as well as holding interests in petrochemical companies. The Gas and Low Carbon Energies segment is involved in the logistic and trading of natural gas and electricity; transportation and trading of liquefied natural gas; generation of electricity through thermoelectric power plants; renewable energy business; low carbon business; and natural gas processing business, as well as production of biodiesel and its co-products. It also engages in prospecting, drilling, refining, processing, trading, and transporting crude oil from producing onshore and offshore oil fields, and shale or other rocks, as well as oil products, natural gas, and other liquid hydrocarbons. In addition, the company engages in research, development, production, transportation, distribution, and trading of energy. Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras was incorporated in 1953 and is headquartered in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.

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