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CVECenovus Energy IncHold5.8·$27.71-3.52%
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Cenovus Energy Inc (CVE) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $27.71, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1).

Cenovus Energy Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, produces, refines, transports, and markets crude oil, natural gas, and refined petroleum products in Canada, the United States, and China. It operates through Upstream and Downstream segments. The company is involved... Read more

$27.71+13.7% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#8 of 17 Oil & Gas Integrated
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield6.85%
IncomeYield2.25%(5y avg 2.11%)Payout31.87%sustainable
Stop $26.36Target $31.43(resistance)A.R:R -1.5:1
Analyst target$28.59+3.2%2 analysts
$31.43our TP
$27.71price
$28.59mean
$25
$32

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $27.71, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-10
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202650d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.0
P/E (Fwd)11.3
Mkt Cap$53.6B
EV/EBITDA6.1
Profit Mgn9.5%
ROE14.8%
Rev Growth-7.1%
Beta0.51
Dividend2.25%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C2.29bearish
IV59%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Volume
4.1
Rsi
8.1
Oversold in uptrend (RSI 28)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R -1.5=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 50d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
28 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $27.18Resistance $32.07

Price Targets

$26
$31
A.Upside+13.4%
A.R:R-1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-12.1% upside)
! momentum at 3.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (50d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CVE stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $27.71, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $31.43 (+13.4%), stop $26.36 (−5.1%), A.R:R -1.5:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CVE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $31.43 (+13.7% upside). Target $31.43 (+13.4%), stop $26.36 (−5.1%), A.R:R -1.5:1. Stop-loss: $26.36.

What are the risks of investing in CVE?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1); Negative momentum.

Is CVE overvalued or undervalued?

Cenovus Energy Inc trades at a P/E of 16.0 (forward 11.3). TrendMatrix value score: 9.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about CVE?

20 analysts cover CVE with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $29.

What does Cenovus Energy Inc do?Cenovus Energy Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, produces, refines, transports, and markets crude oil,...

Cenovus Energy Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, produces, refines, transports, and markets crude oil, natural gas, and refined petroleum products in Canada, the United States, and China. It operates through Upstream and Downstream segments. The company is involved in the development and production of bitumen and heavy oil; owns and operates pipeline gathering systems and terminals; operation of assets rich in NGLs and natural gas in Alberta and British Columbia; and offshore operations, exploration, and development activities in the East Coast of Canada and the Asia Pacific region. It also engages in refining, such as owned and operated Lloydminster upgrading and asphalt refining complex; owns and operates the Bruderheim crude-by-rail terminal and two ethanol plants; fuels business; and refining of crude oil to produce gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, asphalt, and other products. Cenovus Energy Inc. was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

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