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PAYCPaycom Software, Inc.Hold5.7·$132.24-3.28%
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Paycom Software, Inc. (PAYC) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $132.24, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 3.1%; Negative momentum.

Paycom provides a comprehensive cloud-based HCM SaaS platform covering payroll, talent acquisition, HR management, and time and labor for US businesses. It sells directly through a captive sales force to ~39,200 clients and earns subscription revenue based on employee headcount... Read more

$132.24+3.1% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#45 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield4.62%
IncomeYield1.10%Payout17.36%sustainable
Stop $125.97Target $136.29(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$151.44+14.5%16 analysts
$136.29our TP
$132.24price
$151.44mean
$120
$195

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $132.24, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 3.1%; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 55d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-11
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202655d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 3.1%
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.8
P/E (Fwd)11.1
Mkt Cap$6.4B
EV/EBITDA10.4
Profit Mgn22.4%
ROE37.1%
Rev Growth7.8%
Beta0.79
Dividend1.10%
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.80neutral
IV65%elevated
Max Pain$390+194.9% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-26Item 5.02LOW
    Director Archana Vemulapalli resigned from the Board effective March 31, 2026, to pursue other professional opportunities. No disagreement with the Company. Board size reduced from 7 to 6 directors.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-19Item 5.02LOW
    Shane Hadlock appointed President and Chief Client Officer on February 18, 2026; Chad Richison remains CEO. Randy Peck (COO) will report to Hadlock. Hadlock's base salary increased to $700,000. Clean succession from existing leadership.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
3.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume
6.6
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5A.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 55d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $129.87Resistance $151.38

Price Targets

$126
$136
A.Upside+3.1%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (55d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PAYC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $132.24, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 3.1%; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $136.29 (+3.1%), stop $125.97 (−5.0%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PAYC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $136.29 (+3.1% upside). Target $136.29 (+3.1%), stop $125.97 (−5.0%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Stop-loss: $125.97.

What are the risks of investing in PAYC?

Thin upside margin: 3.1%; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is PAYC overvalued or undervalued?

Paycom Software, Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.8 (forward 11.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about PAYC?

27 analysts cover PAYC with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $151.

What does Paycom Software, Inc. do?Paycom provides a comprehensive cloud-based HCM SaaS platform covering payroll, talent acquisition, HR management, and...

Paycom provides a comprehensive cloud-based HCM SaaS platform covering payroll, talent acquisition, HR management, and time and labor for US businesses. It sells directly through a captive sales force to ~39,200 clients and earns subscription revenue based on employee headcount and applications used, with a 91% annual revenue retention rate in 2025.

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