Oracle carries a wide economic moat, exceptional return on equity of 53%, and strong analyst upside of 33%, but a confirmed downtrend with a death cross, elevated put-to-call ratio of 1.91, and negative free cash flow make this a hold-not-buy situation until momentum recovers.
Thesis pillars
- Revenue Growth 21pct→Stable
- Wide Moat High Roe→Stable
- Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Jun 22, 2026
Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $144.54: Concentration risk — Product: cloud revenues (51.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single vendor technologies and components.
Oracle sells enterprise cloud applications (Fusion ERP, HCM, CX, NetSuite, Oracle Health), Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, database and middleware software licenses with support, and hardware such as Exadata through three businesses: cloud and software, hardware and services. Cloud... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $144.54: Concentration risk — Product: cloud revenues (51.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single vendor technologies and components. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Score 7.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 46d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: speculative.
About Oracle Corporation
About Oracle Corporation
Oracle reports three businesses, cloud and software, hardware, and services, and cloud revenues reached 51% of total revenues in fiscal 2026, up from 43% in fiscal 2025 and 37% in fiscal 2024. The company invested $10.3 billion in research and development in fiscal 2026, compared with $9.9 billion and $8.9 billion in the prior two years, and sells through a direct worldwide sales force and the Oracle Partner Network to businesses, government agencies, educational institutions and resellers.
Within cloud revenues, infrastructure accounted for 53% in fiscal 2026 and applications for 47%, a reversal from fiscal 2024 when applications were 65% and infrastructure 35%. Oracle Cloud Applications are sold as subscriptions and include Fusion Cloud ERP, HCM and CX, the NetSuite suite for smaller organizations and Oracle Health. Oracle Cloud Infrastructure offers compute from virtual machines to GPU-based and bare metal servers, storage, and the Oracle Autonomous AI Database, which also runs inside other hyperscale clouds through multicloud arrangements. Software licenses cover Oracle AI Database, Middleware and Java, and substantially all license buyers purchase support contracts. Support customers who migrated to Oracle Cloud over the past three fiscal years added $5.4 billion of annualized cloud revenue.
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Capacity commitments are the lens that stands out. To grow Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, the company has entered long-term leases with third-party data center providers and commitments with chip and equipment suppliers, and the 10-K says that if demand falls short or key customers cannot pay, Oracle could be locked into multi-year commitments for unused space without matching revenue. Lease terms typically do not align with customer contract durations, power supply is described as constrained globally, and some components can only be bought from a single vendor. In certain infrastructure offerings the customer base is more concentrated among a number of large customers, which may raise credit and non-performance risk. The filing also lists an At the Market (ATM) Program and 6.50% Series D Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock among financing-related risks that could dilute common shareholders.
See also: Technology · Software - Infrastructure
From Oracle Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted October 18, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Oracle Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Oracle Stock (ORCL) Opinions on OpenAI Missing Growth Targets - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative negative
- NEWS How Oracle Stock Could Rise To $300 - Forbes — Forbes positive
- NEWS Oracle: The Bounce Is Just The Beginning - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- NEWS Oracle Earnings Beat Estimates But Stock Falls Late With AI Spending In Focus - Investor's Business Daily — Investor's Business Daily positive
- NEWS ORCL Stock Drops Amid Lower-Than-Expected Q1 Earnings Guidance, Unchanged FY27 Sales Outlook - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:51Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductcloud revenues51%10-K Item 1: 'our cloud revenues represented 51%, 43% and 37% of our total revenues during fiscal 2026, 2025 and 2024, respectively'
- MEDIUMCustomerlarge customers in certain OCI offerings10-K Item 1A: 'In certain OCI offerings, we are more concentrated among a number of large customers'
- HIGHSuppliersingle vendor technologies and components10-K Item 1A: 'there are some technologies and components that can only be purchased from a single vendor'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $144.54: Concentration risk — Product: cloud revenues (51.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single vendor technologies and components. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Prior stop was $134.42. Score 7.0/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $216.94 (+50.1% upside). Prior stop was $134.42. Stop-loss: $134.42.
Concentration risk — Product: cloud revenues (51.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single vendor technologies and components; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.
Oracle Corporation trades at a P/E of 22.7 (forward 13.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
48 analysts cover ORCL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $236.
What does Oracle Corporation do?Oracle sells enterprise cloud applications (Fusion ERP, HCM, CX, NetSuite, Oracle Health), Oracle Cloud Infrastructure,...
Oracle sells enterprise cloud applications (Fusion ERP, HCM, CX, NetSuite, Oracle Health), Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, database and middleware software licenses with support, and hardware such as Exadata through three businesses: cloud and software, hardware and services. Cloud revenues were 51% of fiscal 2026 total revenues, up from 37% in fiscal 2024. Customers buy through a direct global sales force and the Oracle Partner Network.