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Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $173.72, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.2): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Oracle provides enterprise applications and infrastructure through Oracle Cloud Services (OCA and OCI) and on-premise deployments worldwide, serving businesses, governments, and educational institutions. Revenue comes from cloud subscriptions, license support, hardware, and... Read more

$173.72+29.0% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#45 of 80 Software - Infrastructure
Stop $161.32Target $223.77(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$243.23+40.0%39 analysts
$223.77our TP
$173.72price
$243.23mean
$400

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $173.72, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.2): -1.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 40d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 4.2): -1.5
Negative momentum
Elevated risk factors

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)29.0
P/E (Fwd)20.1
Mkt Cap$464.2B
EV/EBITDA21.6
Profit Mgn25.3%
ROE57.6%
Rev Growth21.7%
Beta1.60
Dividend1.24%
Rating analysts51

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C2.18bearish
IV60%elevated
Max Pain$75-56.8% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-06Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Hilary Maxson appointed Chief Financial Officer of Oracle effective April 6, 2026. Previously EVP and Group CFO at Schneider Electric SE from 2020 to April 2026. No reason cited for predecessor's departure; no family relationship or related party transactions.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.3
Obv
1.0
Rsi
3.8
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.1
Support Resistance
2.9
Bollinger
3.5
Gap
4.0
GatesMomentum 2.2<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 40d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
62 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $134.57Resistance $189.18

Price Targets

$161
$224
A.Upside+28.8%
A.R:R1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+2: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 2.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-10 (40d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ORCL stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $173.72, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.2): -1.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $223.77 (+28.8%), stop $161.32 (−7.7%), A.R:R 1.9:1. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.

What is the ORCL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $223.77 (+29.0% upside). Target $223.77 (+28.8%), stop $161.32 (−7.7%), A.R:R 1.9:1. Stop-loss: $161.32.

What are the risks of investing in ORCL?

Leverage penalty (D/E 4.2): -1.5; Negative momentum; Elevated risk factors.

Is ORCL overvalued or undervalued?

Oracle Corporation trades at a P/E of 29.0 (forward 20.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ORCL?

51 analysts cover ORCL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $243.

What does Oracle Corporation do?Oracle provides enterprise applications and infrastructure through Oracle Cloud Services (OCA and OCI) and on-premise...

Oracle provides enterprise applications and infrastructure through Oracle Cloud Services (OCA and OCI) and on-premise deployments worldwide, serving businesses, governments, and educational institutions. Revenue comes from cloud subscriptions, license support, hardware, and professional services; R&D investment totaled $9.9 billion in fiscal 2025. The company offers flexible deployment models from on-premise to hybrid cloud.

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