Value
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.1 |
| P/S | 4.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.4 |
| PEG | 6.9 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.9x
- ▸PEG: 1.01
ORCL · Why this verdict
Why Oracle (ORCL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 4.3 |
| Gross margin | 9.2 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.3 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 53%
- ▸Strong margins: 25%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -147% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
7.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.6 |
| EPS growth | 6.4 |
- ▸Strong growth: 21% YoY
Momentum
1.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 1.4 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 41%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $2,642,850 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.9 |
| quality rank | 9.0 |
| growth rank | 5.3 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.7 |
| support resistance | 9.1 |
| 52w position | 0.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.0 |
| days to cover | 9.3 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 7.6 |
| implied vol | 3.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| debt equity | 1.4 |
| news risk | 3.0 |
- ▸High IV: 62%
- ▸Above max pain $115
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.4 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 109.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:2.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST_CLUSTER(9)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:89d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.6<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.97
Upside
+29.6%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:1.6<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.97 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.5, Growth at 7.0, and Quality at 6.6; the weakest are Momentum at 1.6, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.5, and Peer rank at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.97 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.