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FTNTFortinet, Inc.Hold5.6·$147.28+1.53%
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Fortinet, Inc. (FTNT) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $147.28, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Taiwan (87.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Fortinet is a cybersecurity company providing the Fortinet Security Fabric platform spanning secure networking, unified SASE, and AI-driven SecOps, with customers in 100+ countries. It generated $6.80B revenue in 2025; products are sold primarily through a two-tier distribution... Read more

$147.28+19.9% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#42 of 77 Software - Infrastructure
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.69%
Entry $122.70(support + ATR)Stop $115.91Target $147.07(resistance)A.R:R -1.9:1Setup A.R:R 3.6:1
Analyst target$112.49-23.6%37 analysts
$147.07our TP
$147.28price
$112.49mean
$70
$180

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $147.28, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Taiwan (87.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $146.30 has reached target $147.07. No upside to wait for. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.89)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Taiwan (87.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.5% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)56.9
P/E (Fwd)42.7
Mkt Cap$107.2B
EV/EBITDA44.2
Profit Mgn27.5%
ROE132.4%
Rev Growth20.1%
Beta1.11
DividendNone
Rating analysts52

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.56bullish
IV56%elevated
Max Pain$45-69.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicTaiwan87%
    10-K Item 1: 'Approximately 87% of our hardware is manufactured in Taiwan.'
  • MEDIUMSupplierTSMC
    10-K Item 1: 'contract manufacturers use foundries in Taiwan and Japan operated by either Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited ("TSMC") or by the contract manufacturer itself'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.0
Ev Ebitda
0.0
Pe
2.2
Forward Pe
2.6
Analyst Target
3.0
Peg Ratio
3.5
Forward P/E: 42.7xPEG: 3.30Expensive valuation
GatesA.R:R -1.9=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.2>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60EARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
62 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $119.49Resistance $150.07

Price Targets

$116
$123
$147
A.Upside-0.1%
A.R:R-1.9:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)3.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-29.3% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FTNT stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $147.28, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Taiwan (87.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $146.30 has reached target $147.07. No upside to wait for. Target $147.07 (-0.1%), stop $115.91 (−27.1%), A.R:R -1.9:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FTNT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $147.07 (+19.9% upside). Target $147.07 (-0.1%), stop $115.91 (−27.1%), A.R:R -1.9:1. Stop-loss: $115.91.

What are the risks of investing in FTNT?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Taiwan (87.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.5% away).

Is FTNT overvalued or undervalued?

Fortinet, Inc. trades at a P/E of 56.9 (forward 42.7). TrendMatrix value score: 2.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about FTNT?

52 analysts cover FTNT with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $112.

What does Fortinet, Inc. do?Fortinet is a cybersecurity company providing the Fortinet Security Fabric platform spanning secure networking, unified...

Fortinet is a cybersecurity company providing the Fortinet Security Fabric platform spanning secure networking, unified SASE, and AI-driven SecOps, with customers in 100+ countries. It generated $6.80B revenue in 2025; products are sold primarily through a two-tier distribution model. Approximately 87% of hardware is manufactured in Taiwan.

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