Nelnet, Inc. (NNI) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Financial Services · Credit Services
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $140.34 — A.R:R is negative (-2.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.8% away).
Nelnet is a Nebraska-based holding company with operations in student loan servicing, education technology payments, and asset management, having serviced $486.2 billion of loans for 13.2 million borrowers as of December 31, 2025. Revenue comes from net interest on a $7.6... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $140.34 — A.R:R is negative (-2.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.8% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.
Passes 4/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerDepartment of Education21%10-K Item 1A: 'Our largest fee-based customer, the Department of Education, represented 21% of our revenue in 2025.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-02Item 1.02MEDIUMNelnet entered a new $435M unsecured credit agreement on March 31, 2026 (maturing March 31, 2031), replacing the prior credit arrangement. Proceeds for general corporate purposes; no reason cited for the refinancing.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-23Item 5.02LOWAdam Peterson resigned from Board of Directors effective March 23, 2026 for business and personal reasons; not the result of any disagreement with the Company. No successor named.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -8.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $140.34 — A.R:R is negative (-2.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.8% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $133.44. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $141.49 (+0.8% upside). Prior stop was $133.44. Stop-loss: $133.44.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.8% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5.
Nelnet, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.0 (forward 14.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
8 analysts cover NNI with a consensus score of 2.3/5. Average price target: $135.
What does Nelnet, Inc. do?Nelnet is a Nebraska-based holding company with operations in student loan servicing, education technology payments,...
Nelnet is a Nebraska-based holding company with operations in student loan servicing, education technology payments, and asset management, having serviced $486.2 billion of loans for 13.2 million borrowers as of December 31, 2025. Revenue comes from net interest on a $7.6 billion FFELP loan portfolio, servicing fees from the Department of Education (21% of 2025 revenue), and education technology services.