Nelnet, Inc. (NNI) Stock Analysis
Financial Services · Credit Services
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $130.30 — A.R:R is negative (-2.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5.
Nelnet is a diversified education-focused holding company with segments in loan servicing (servicing $486.2B for 13.2 million borrowers including $434.5B for the Department of Education), education technology/payments (FACTS, Nelnet Campus Commerce), and asset management (AGM... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $130.30 — A.R:R is negative (-2.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 52d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-14Recent Developments — Nelnet, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Nelnet Q1 Adj. EPS $1.94 Misses $2.66 Estimate, Sales $419.061M Miss $443.840M Estimate — benzinga May 7, 2026 negative
- NEWS Nelnet Q1 Adj. EPS $1.94 Misses $2.66 Estimate — benzinga May 7, 2026 negative
- NEWS Nelnet's Nelnet Business Services Acquires Passtab Safety and Compliance Platform; No Terms Disclosed — benzinga Apr 30, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerDepartment of Education21%10-K Item 1: 'The Department is the Company's largest customer, representing 21% of the Company's revenue and 68% of the LSS operating segment's revenue in 2025.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-23Item 5.02MEDIUMAdam Peterson resigned from Nelnet's Board of Directors effective March 23, 2026 for business and personal reasons. No disagreement with operations, policies, or practices cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Revenue shrinking — -7.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $130.30 — A.R:R is negative (-2.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $124.74. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $129.45 (-0.7% upside). Prior stop was $124.74. Stop-loss: $124.74.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Nelnet, Inc. trades at a P/E of 11.3 (forward 13.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
8 analysts cover NNI with a consensus score of 2.3/5. Average price target: $135.
What does Nelnet, Inc. do?Nelnet is a diversified education-focused holding company with segments in loan servicing (servicing $486.2B for 13.2...
Nelnet is a diversified education-focused holding company with segments in loan servicing (servicing $486.2B for 13.2 million borrowers including $434.5B for the Department of Education), education technology/payments (FACTS, Nelnet Campus Commerce), and asset management (AGM with $8.7B loan portfolio). The Department of Education is Nelnet's largest customer, representing 21% of revenue in 2025 and 68% of the Loan Servicing segment's revenue. It also operates Nelnet Bank, an internet industrial bank.