nCino, Inc. (NCNO) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the NCNO stock price target?

Take-profit $20.76 (+14.2% upside). Prior stop was $16.90.

Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-05-02

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $18.19: Concentration risk — Supplier: Salesforce Platform; Weak overall score: 4.7/10.

nCino provides cloud-based banking software embedding AI into lending, account opening, and risk management workflows for financial institutions of all sizes globally, generating $594.8 million in revenue in fiscal 2026. The platform is built on Salesforce, creating deep... Read more

$18.19+14.2% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#94 of 96 Software - Application

Stop $16.90Target $20.76(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.6:1

Analyst target$23.86+31.2%14 analysts

$20.76our TP

$18.19price

$23.86mean

$16

$32

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $18.19: Concentration risk — Supplier: Salesforce Platform; Weak overall score: 4.7/10. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 26d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)

Risks

Concentration risk — Supplier: Salesforce Platform

Weak overall score: 4.7/10

Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)349.6

P/E (Fwd)12.3

Mkt Cap$2.0B

EV/EBITDA37.3

Profit Mgn0.9%

ROE0.9%

Rev Growth5.9%

Beta0.61

DividendNone

Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral

IV74%elevated

Max Pain$8-58.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHSupplierSalesforce Platform
10-K Item 1A: 'Fundamental elements of the nCino Platform are built on the Salesforce Platform and we rely on our agreement with Salesforce to provide this solution to our customers.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value6.615%0.99

Quality4.215%0.63

Growth4.015%0.60

Momentum4.610%0.46

Sentiment7.110%0.71

Insider Activity3.310%0.33

Peer Rank1.810%0.18

Technical Setup3.15%0.16

Risk Profile5.05%0.25

Catalyst7.55%0.38

Overall (Σ contributions)4.68

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank

1.3

Quality Rank

3.0

Value Rank

3.1

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position

0.7

Bollinger

2.8

Support Resistance

3.8

Gap

5.0

GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.6>=4.5A.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 26d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

60 · Neutral

↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $16.71Resistance $19.07

Price Targets

$17

$21

A.Upside+14.1%

A.R:R1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

3/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-27 (26d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is NCNO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $18.19: Concentration risk — Supplier: Salesforce Platform; Weak overall score: 4.7/10. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $16.90. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NCNO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $20.76 (+14.2% upside). Prior stop was $16.90. Stop-loss: $16.90.

What are the risks of investing in NCNO?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Salesforce Platform; Weak overall score: 4.7/10; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is NCNO overvalued or undervalued?

nCino, Inc. trades at a P/E of 349.6 (forward 12.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NCNO?

24 analysts cover NCNO with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $24.

What does nCino, Inc. do?nCino provides cloud-based banking software embedding AI into lending, account opening, and risk management workflows...