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NCNOnCino, Inc.Sell5.4·$15.32+3.93%
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nCino, Inc. (NCNO) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $15.32 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Concentration risk — Supplier: Salesforce Platform.

nCino provides a cloud-based banking intelligence platform built on Salesforce, serving over 2,700 financial institutions globally with loan origination, account opening, onboarding, and credit monitoring solutions. Revenue of $594.8M in fiscal 2026 comes primarily from... Read more

$15.32+31.1% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#71 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield8.25%
Stop $14.25Target $20.08(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.4:1
Analyst target$23.08+50.7%12 analysts
$20.08our TP
$15.32price
$23.08mean
$28

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $15.32 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Concentration risk — Supplier: Salesforce Platform. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 72d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 25, 202672d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Analyst upside: 31%
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Salesforce Platform
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.0%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)127.7
P/E (Fwd)10.0
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA26.8
Profit Mgn2.2%
ROE1.8%
Rev Growth10.6%
Beta0.69
DividendNone
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C5.14bearish
IV95%elevated
Max Pain$25+63.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierSalesforce Platform
    10-K Item 1A: 'Fundamental elements of the nCino Platform are built on the Salesforce Platform and we rely on our agreement with Salesforce to provide this solution to our customers.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
3.1
Growth Rank
3.1
Value Rank
3.5

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.9
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
3.5
Rsi
4.5
Obv
9.4
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 72d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $14.18Resistance $17.36

Price Targets

$14
$20
A.Upside+31.1%
A.R:R2.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-25 (72d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NCNO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $15.32 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Concentration risk — Supplier: Salesforce Platform. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $14.25. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NCNO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $20.08 (+31.1% upside). Prior stop was $14.25. Stop-loss: $14.25.

What are the risks of investing in NCNO?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Salesforce Platform; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.0%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is NCNO overvalued or undervalued?

nCino, Inc. trades at a P/E of 127.7 (forward 10.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NCNO?

22 analysts cover NCNO with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $23.

What does nCino, Inc. do?nCino provides a cloud-based banking intelligence platform built on Salesforce, serving over 2,700 financial...

nCino provides a cloud-based banking intelligence platform built on Salesforce, serving over 2,700 financial institutions globally with loan origination, account opening, onboarding, and credit monitoring solutions. Revenue of $594.8M in fiscal 2026 comes primarily from multi-year subscription contracts; no single customer exceeded 10% of revenue.

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