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NATLNCR Atleos CorporationSell5.7·$44.28+0.39%
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NCR Atleos Corporation (NATL) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $44.28 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: international (outside United States) (55.0%).

NCR Atleos is a financial technology company providing ATM and self-directed banking solutions globally, including the Allpoint surcharge-free network, ATM-as-a-Service, and managed services across three segments: Self-Service Banking, Network, and T&T. Revenue is earned through... Read more

$44.28+2.0% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#48 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield15.13%
Stop $43.19Target $45.19(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$50.27+13.5%3 analysts
$45.19our TP
$44.28price
$50.27mean
$50

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $44.28 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: international (outside United States) (55.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.7/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 58d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09

Recent Developments — NCR Atleos Corporation

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202658d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: international (outside United States) (55.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.7
P/E (Fwd)8.3
Mkt Cap$3.3B
EV/EBITDA7.1
Profit Mgn3.8%
ROE50.7%
Rev Growth6.5%
Beta0.57
DividendNone
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV65%elevated
Max Pain$40-9.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicinternational (outside United States)55%
    10-K Item 1A: 'For the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024, and 2023, the percentage of our revenue from outside of the United States was 55%'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Erm
1.0
Surprise Avg
2.5
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings History
6.7
Estimates down -34.4% (30d)Strong earnings: 3B/1M
GatesMomentum 4.3<4.5A.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 58d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $43.63Resistance $46.11

Price Targets

$43
$45
A.Upside+2.1%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.6% upside)
! momentum at 4.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (58d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NATL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $44.28 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: international (outside United States) (55.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $43.19. Score 5.7/10, high confidence.

What is the NATL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $45.19 (+2.0% upside). Prior stop was $43.19. Stop-loss: $43.19.

What are the risks of investing in NATL?

Concentration risk — Geographic: international (outside United States) (55.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1).

Is NATL overvalued or undervalued?

NCR Atleos Corporation trades at a P/E of 19.7 (forward 8.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NATL?

9 analysts cover NATL with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $50.

What does NCR Atleos Corporation do?NCR Atleos is a financial technology company providing ATM and self-directed banking solutions globally, including the...

NCR Atleos is a financial technology company providing ATM and self-directed banking solutions globally, including the Allpoint surcharge-free network, ATM-as-a-Service, and managed services across three segments: Self-Service Banking, Network, and T&T. Revenue is earned through per-transaction fees, recurring subscription contracts, and managed service arrangements; 55% of 2025 revenue came from outside the United States.

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