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MXLMaxLinear, IncSell5.7·$75.14
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

MaxLinear is recovering strongly with 43% revenue growth and 3 consecutive earnings beats, but trades 33% above its price target with quality below the minimum threshold and a very high forward P/E of 47x that limits the risk-adjusted case for new entry.

Thesis pillars

  • Revenue Recovery Strong Growth→Stable
  • Quality Floor Breach↑Improving
  • Piotroski Strength Balance Sheet↑Improving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Jan 29, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

MaxLinear, Inc (MXL) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $75.14: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

MaxLinear is a fabless designer of communications systems-on-chip used in broadband, mobile and wireline infrastructure, data centers, and industrial and multi-market applications, integrating RF, analog, mixed-signal and digital-signal-processing functions onto single chips.... Read more

$75.14+8.4% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#33 of 53 Semiconductors
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-0.58%
Stop $69.88Analyst target $81.46(−13% haircut)A.R:R 0.6:1
Analyst consensus$93.64+24.6%11 analysts
$81.46Analyst target
$75.14price
$93.64mean
$40
$125

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $75.14: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/8 gates (positive momentum, earnings proximity 91d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity and SEC filing concern. Suitability: speculative.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About MaxLinear, Inc

About MaxLinear, Inc

MaxLinear designs communications systems-on-chip as a fabless integrated circuit company, combining RF, high-performance analog, mixed-signal and digital-signal-processing functions onto single dies for customers building 5G base-station radios, optical transceivers for hyperscale data centers, and Wi-Fi and DOCSIS broadband gateways. The company's target end-markets span data-center infrastructure serving customers such as Meta, Amazon, Microsoft and Google, 5G wireless infrastructure using massive MIMO beamforming, and connected-home broadband access equipment. In May 2026, MaxLinear dismissed Grant Thornton as its independent registered public accounting firm without disclosing any disagreement over accounting practices, and stockholders approved a ten-year renewal of its equity incentive plan with 3,204,107 additional shares reserved at the 2026 annual meeting.

MaxLinear sells primarily through electronics distributors, module makers and OEM/ODM customers rather than directly to end consumers, earning revenue from hardware component sales priced on a per-chip basis across its broadband, infrastructure, data-center and industrial product lines. Its competitive position rests on combining RF/analog design expertise with high-speed digital signal processing on a single chip, which the company argues lowers system cost, power consumption and board space relative to rivals using multiple discrete components. As a fabless designer, MaxLinear depends on third-party wafer foundries and packaging/test subcontractors for manufacturing capacity, exposing it to allocation risk during periods of high industry demand for advanced process nodes. The company previously pursued a merger with Silicon Motion Technology that was subsequently terminated, and its 10-K discusses residual risk factors tied to that terminated transaction alongside its ongoing operating business.

Show full overview

MaxLinear's data-center strategy is built around supplying optical-transceiver components to a short list of named hyperscale operators, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Oracle, Alibaba, Bytedance and Tencent among them, whose internal switch and server upgrade cycles from 400G toward 800G and 1.6T interconnects directly drive demand for MaxLinear's newest parts. Because these hyperscalers concentrate purchasing decisions internally and can qualify multiple competing suppliers simultaneously, a design loss at even one or two of these named customers could materially affect MaxLinear's data-center revenue trajectory, though the 10-K does not disclose what share of segment revenue any single hyperscaler represents.

See also: Technology · Semiconductors

From MaxLinear, Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29

Recent Developments — MaxLinear, Inc

Generated 2026-10-29T11:53:51Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jan 28, 202791d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)17.5
Mkt Cap$6.8B
EV/EBITDA183.0
Profit Mgn-4.4%
ROE-5.9%
Rev Growth72.4%
Beta3.94
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.70neutral
IV103%elevated
Max Pain$45-40.1% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-01Item 4.01HIGH
    On May 28, 2026 MaxLinear dismissed Grant Thornton LLP as its independent registered public accounting firm, approved by the Audit Committee. Grant Thornton's prior reports contained no adverse opinion or disclaimer; no disagreements or reportable events were cited.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-21Item 5.02LOW
    At MaxLinear's 2026 annual meeting, stockholders approved a restated Equity Incentive Plan with a new ten-year term and 3,204,107 additional reserved shares, plus an amended Employee Stock Purchase Plan removing its annual automatic share increase. Routine equity-plan renewal.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Hyper-growth tech sacrificing current profitability for scale. Floor tripped because model treats negative margins uniformly; the growth dimension tells the other half of the story.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Operating Margin
5.6
Moat
6.5
Piotroski F
6.7
Gross Margin
7.6
Current Ratio
7.7
Cash-burning: FCF -6% of revenue
GatesA.R:R 0.6 < 1.5@spotINSIDER 0.74%=HEAVYSEC critical: Momentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.3>=4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 91d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
35 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $58.44Resistance $113.13

Price Targets

$70
$81
A.Upside+8.4%
A.R:R0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)
! asymmetry at 0.6 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Insider activity: 0.74%=heavy

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2027-01-28 (91d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MXL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $75.14: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $69.88. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MXL stock price target?

Analyst target: $81.46 (+8.4% upside). Prior stop was $69.88. Stop-loss: $69.88.

What are the risks of investing in MXL?

Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Is MXL overvalued or undervalued?

MaxLinear, Inc trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 17.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MXL?

14 analysts cover MXL with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $94.

What does MaxLinear, Inc do?MaxLinear is a fabless designer of communications systems-on-chip used in broadband, mobile and wireline...

MaxLinear is a fabless designer of communications systems-on-chip used in broadband, mobile and wireline infrastructure, data centers, and industrial and multi-market applications, integrating RF, analog, mixed-signal and digital-signal-processing functions onto single chips. Customers include electronics distributors, module makers, OEMs and ODMs building products such as 5G base-station radios, optical transceivers for data centers, and Wi-Fi and DOCSIS broadband gateways. The company terminated its proposed merger with Silicon Motion and, in May 2026, dismissed its longtime auditor Grant Th

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