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SIMOSilicon Motion Technology CorpoHold7.3·$219.61
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Silicon Motion Technology delivered 106% year-over-year revenue growth and has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 31%, but the stock trades above the analyst consensus target with negative asymmetry and a free cash flow red flag that warrants caution before adding exposure.

Thesis pillars

  • Exceptional Revenue Growth Rate→Stable
  • Consistent Earnings Delivery↑Improving
  • Free Cash Flow Quality Concern→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Silicon Motion Technology Corpo (SIMO) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $219.61, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Silicon Motion Technology Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, and markets NAND flash controllers for solid-state storage devices and related devices in China, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, Korea, the United States, and internationally. It offers... Read more

$219.61+44.0% A.UpsideScore 7.3/10#2 of 53 Semiconductors
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-2.64%
IncomeYield1.13%(5y avg 1.62%)Payout23.39%sustainable
Stop $204.24Analyst target $316.25(−13% haircut)A.R:R 2.9:1
Analyst consensus$363.50+65.5%10 analysts
$316.25Analyst target
$219.61price
$363.50mean
$450

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $219.61, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 7.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost earnings 0.70, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 28, 2026Date unconfirmed· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.4 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong overall score: 7.3/10
Risks
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)25.7
P/E (Fwd)13.5
Mkt Cap$7.4B
EV/EBITDA30.0
Profit Mgn22.1%
ROE31.6%
Rev Growth127.0%
Beta1.68
Dividend1.13%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C1.20bearish
IV113%elevated
Max Pain$125-43.1% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesMomentum 6.2>=5.5A.R:R 2.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST EARNINGS 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
35 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $182.44Resistance $294.98

Price Targets

$204
$316
A.Upside+44.0%
A.R:R2.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts18
Consensus4.2/5
Avg Target$364

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-28 (Date unconfirmed)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SIMO stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $219.61, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $316.25 (+44.0%), stop $204.24 (−7.5%), A.R:R 2.9:1. Score 7.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SIMO stock price target?

Analyst target: $316.25 (+44.0% upside). Analyst target $316.25 (+44.0%), stop $204.24 (−7.5%), A.R:R 2.9:1. Stop-loss: $204.24.

What are the risks of investing in SIMO?

Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Is SIMO overvalued or undervalued?

Silicon Motion Technology Corpo trades at a P/E of 25.7 (forward 13.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about SIMO?

18 analysts cover SIMO with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $364.

What does Silicon Motion Technology Corpo do?Silicon Motion Technology Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, and markets NAND flash...

Silicon Motion Technology Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, and markets NAND flash controllers for solid-state storage devices and related devices in China, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, Korea, the United States, and internationally. It offers controllers for computing-grade solid state drives (SSDs), which are used in PCs and other client devices; enterprise-grade SSDs used in enterprise and hyperscale data centers; eMMC and UFS mobile embedded storage for use in smartphones and IoT devices; flash memory cards and flash drives for use in expandable storage; and specialized SSDs that are used in industrial, commercial, and automotive applications. The company markets its controllers under the SMI brand; and single-chip SSDs under the FerriSSD, Ferri-eMMC, and Ferri-UFS brands. It markets and sells its products through direct sales personnel and independent electronics distributors to NAND flash makers, module makers, hyperscalers, and OEMs. Silicon Motion Technology Corporation was founded in 1995 and is based in Hong Kong, Hong Kong.

Related stocks: CRUS (Cirrus Logic, Inc.) · NXPI (NXP Semiconductors N.V.) · ALGM (Allegro MicroSystems, Inc.) · CRDO (Credo Technology Group Holding ) · MPWR (Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.)
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