Value
5.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 3.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.01
MXL · Why this verdict
Why MaxLinear (MXL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
MaxLinear is recovering strongly with 43% revenue growth and 3 consecutive earnings beats, but trades 33% above its price target with quality below the minimum threshold and a very high forward P/E of 47x that limits the risk-adjusted case for new entry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
MaxLinear's revenue grew 43% year-over-year, reflecting a semiconductor design recovery after a prior downturn, with 3 consecutive earnings beats and an average positive surprise of 14.5% supporting the recovery narrative. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 20% YoY for at least 2 of the next 4 quarters as the semiconductor demand recovery continues. | →Stable |
| CounterRecovery growth rates are mathematically elevated off low prior-year comparisons; once the comparison base normalizes in the second half of the year, reported growth rates will compress sharply. | ||
Business quality scores fall below the minimum acceptable floor, with zero operating margin and zero net margin contribution from operations, suggesting profitability is still fragile despite the revenue rebound. Bear case | Operating margin improves above 5% within 4 quarters as revenue scale drives operating leverage on the fixed cost base. | ↑Improving |
| CounterFabless semiconductor companies can reach operating leverage quickly once revenues cross a threshold; if the 43% growth continues, margins could turn positive rapidly. | ||
Despite quality concerns on margins, MaxLinear holds a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and a current ratio above 6, indicating that the balance sheet is solid and the company is not at risk of near-term financial distress. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score remains at 7 or above through the next 2 reporting cycles as liquidity remains healthy. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA high Piotroski score does not prevent margin deterioration; if revenue growth decelerates, the company's operating leverage works in reverse and quality scores will follow. | ||
MaxLinear trades at a forward P/E of 47.3x while the stock is already 33% above the analyst price target, producing a deeply negative asymmetry ratio of -2.23 — the single largest negative asymmetry in this ticker's data. V9 | The stock price pulls back below $75 (declines more than 15% from current $88.76) to restore a more balanced risk-reward profile. | ↑Improving |
| CounterSemiconductor design companies with strong IP portfolios and a recovery cycle tailwind often sustain premium multiples for longer than valuation models suggest. | ||
MaxLinear's revenue grew 43% year-over-year, reflecting a semiconductor design recovery after a prior downturn, with 3 consecutive earnings beats and an average positive surprise of 14.5% supporting the recovery narrative.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 20% YoY for at least 2 of the next 4 quarters as the semiconductor demand recovery continues.
CounterRecovery growth rates are mathematically elevated off low prior-year comparisons; once the comparison base normalizes in the second half of the year, reported growth rates will compress sharply.
Business quality scores fall below the minimum acceptable floor, with zero operating margin and zero net margin contribution from operations, suggesting profitability is still fragile despite the revenue rebound.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Operating margin improves above 5% within 4 quarters as revenue scale drives operating leverage on the fixed cost base.
CounterFabless semiconductor companies can reach operating leverage quickly once revenues cross a threshold; if the 43% growth continues, margins could turn positive rapidly.
Despite quality concerns on margins, MaxLinear holds a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and a current ratio above 6, indicating that the balance sheet is solid and the company is not at risk of near-term financial distress.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score remains at 7 or above through the next 2 reporting cycles as liquidity remains healthy.
CounterA high Piotroski score does not prevent margin deterioration; if revenue growth decelerates, the company's operating leverage works in reverse and quality scores will follow.
MaxLinear trades at a forward P/E of 47.3x while the stock is already 33% above the analyst price target, producing a deeply negative asymmetry ratio of -2.23 — the single largest negative asymmetry in this ticker's data.
↑ImprovingV9
- Expectation
- The stock price pulls back below $75 (declines more than 15% from current $88.76) to restore a more balanced risk-reward profile.
CounterSemiconductor design companies with strong IP portfolios and a recovery cycle tailwind often sustain premium multiples for longer than valuation models suggest.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 7.6 |
| Op margin | 5.6 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.7 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -6% of revenue
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 72% YoY
Momentum
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 4.5 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 35) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 8.1 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 25%
Insider
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 3.7 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $50,435,857 (0.740% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.4 |
| quality rank | 1.8 |
| growth rank | 7.5 |
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.6 |
| support resistance | 6.9 |
| 52w position | 1.7 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.6 |
| days to cover | 9.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 8.6 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 8.6 |
- ▸High IV: 103%
- ▸Above max pain $45
Catalyst
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.6 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (4)
- MOMENTUM:5.3>=4.5
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:91d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- ASYMMETRY:0.6<1.5@spot
- INSIDER:0.74%=HEAVY
- 8K_CRITICAL:4.01
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.56
Upside
+8.4%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -41% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 0.6<1.5@spot outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 0.56.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Catalyst at 7.3, and Sentiment at 6.7; the weakest are Insider at 2.7, Quality at 3.8, and Peer rank at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.56 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Revenue Recovery Strong Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Rich Valuation Above Target
Trip ifStock price rises above $100 (surpasses current levels by more than 12%) without a corresponding analyst target upgrade.
- P3Quality Floor Breach
Trip ifOperating margin remains below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters after the revenue recovery.
- P4Piotroski Strength Balance Sheet
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 in the next annual reporting cycle.