Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Technology · Semiconductors
Sell if holding. At $1547.15, A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia customers (92.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: China manufacturing partners.
Monolithic Power Systems is a fabless global semiconductor company designing high-performance power ICs for storage/computing (26.3% of 2025 revenue), enterprise data (25.2%), automotive (21.2%), and other markets, with over 4,500 employees. The company sells primarily to Asian... Read more
Sell if holding. At $1547.15, A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia customers (92.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: China manufacturing partners. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, news boost analyst cluster(3), earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicAsia customers92%10-K Item 1A: 'For the year ended December 31, 2025, 92% of our total revenue was from customers in Asia'
- HIGHSupplierChina manufacturing partners10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of our manufacturing, testing, assembly and packaging capacity comes from key suppliers located in China'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-02-27Item 4.02HIGHAudit Committee determined the 2024 Form 10-K and all 2025 Form 10-Q financial statements should no longer be relied upon due to an unintentional error. Restatement forthcoming. No change to Q1 2026 business outlook.SEC filing →
- 2026-02-05Item 5.02HIGHCFO Bernie Blegen notified the Board on February 3, 2026 of his intention to retire from his EVP and Chief Financial Officer position. No successor named in available text.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $1547.15, A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia customers (92.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: China manufacturing partners. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $1436.62. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $1628.55 (+5.4% upside). Prior stop was $1436.62. Stop-loss: $1436.62.
Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia customers (92.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: China manufacturing partners; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. trades at a P/E of 125.0 (forward 62.2). TrendMatrix value score: 1.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
25 analysts cover MPWR with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $1418.
What does Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. do?Monolithic Power Systems is a fabless global semiconductor company designing high-performance power ICs for...
Monolithic Power Systems is a fabless global semiconductor company designing high-performance power ICs for storage/computing (26.3% of 2025 revenue), enterprise data (25.2%), automotive (21.2%), and other markets, with over 4,500 employees. The company sells primarily to Asian customers (92% of revenue) and manufactures through facilities and partners concentrated in China.