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MPWRMonolithic Power Systems, Inc.Sell5.8·$1527.83-2.01%
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Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temp Headwind edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $1527.83 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Monolithic Power Systems is a fabless analog/mixed-signal IC company providing power electronics solutions across storage/computing (26.3%), enterprise data (25.2%), automotive (21.2%), and other markets. Revenue is highly concentrated in Asia at 92% of 2025 total; three... Read more

$1527.83+2.1% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#11 of 45 Semiconductors
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield0.64%
IncomeYield0.51%(5y avg 0.64%)Payout47.82%sustainable
Stop $1424.74Target $1563.51(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.2:1
Analyst target$1797.14+17.6%14 analysts
$1563.51our TP
$1527.83price
$1797.14mean
$2000

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $1527.83 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-10
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.1 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Expensive valuation

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)111.1
P/E (Fwd)51.7
Mkt Cap$76.6B
EV/EBITDA87.8
Profit Mgn23.0%
ROE19.6%
Rev Growth26.1%
Beta1.69
Dividend0.51%
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.07bearish
IV91%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Pe
0.0
Ps
0.0
Forward Pe
2.2
Peg Ratio
4.6
Analyst Target
5.0
Forward P/E: 51.7xPEG: 1.95Expensive valuation

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume
5.7
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5A.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $1405.00Resistance $1714.09

Price Targets

$1425
$1564
A.Upside+2.3%
A.R:R0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.1% upside)
! momentum at 3.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MPWR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $1527.83 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $1424.74. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MPWR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $1563.51 (+2.1% upside). Prior stop was $1424.74. Stop-loss: $1424.74.

What are the risks of investing in MPWR?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Expensive valuation.

Is MPWR overvalued or undervalued?

Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. trades at a P/E of 111.1 (forward 51.7). TrendMatrix value score: 2.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MPWR?

25 analysts cover MPWR with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $1797.

What does Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. do?Monolithic Power Systems is a fabless analog/mixed-signal IC company providing power electronics solutions across...

Monolithic Power Systems is a fabless analog/mixed-signal IC company providing power electronics solutions across storage/computing (26.3%), enterprise data (25.2%), automotive (21.2%), and other markets. Revenue is highly concentrated in Asia at 92% of 2025 total; three distributors accounted for 26%, 18%, and 10% of 2025 revenue. Products manufactured through foundries in China, Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore.

Related stocks: CRDO (Credo Technology Group Holding ) · SIMO (Silicon Motion Technology Corpo) · ADI (Analog Devices, Inc.) · MCHP (Microchip Technology Incorporat) · ALAB (Astera Labs, Inc.)
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