MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $26.32 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: GSEs.
MGIC Investment provides private mortgage insurance (PMI), credit risk management, and ancillary services through wholly-owned subsidiaries including Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corporation (MGIC). In 2025, primary NIW was $60.2B with $303.1B direct IIF and $1.2B total revenues.... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $26.32 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: GSEs. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerGSEs10-K Item 1A: 'The substantial majority of our new insurance written ("NIW") is for loans purchased by the GSEs'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Revenue shrinking — -3.0% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $26.32 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: GSEs. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $25.41. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $28.94 (+9.9% upside). Prior stop was $25.41. Stop-loss: $25.41.
Concentration risk — Customer: GSEs; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak overall score: 4.9/10.
MGIC Investment Corporation trades at a P/E of 8.4 (forward 7.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts cover MTG with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $29.
What does MGIC Investment Corporation do?MGIC Investment provides private mortgage insurance (PMI), credit risk management, and ancillary services through...
MGIC Investment provides private mortgage insurance (PMI), credit risk management, and ancillary services through wholly-owned subsidiaries including Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corporation (MGIC). In 2025, primary NIW was $60.2B with $303.1B direct IIF and $1.2B total revenues. The vast majority of NIW insures loans purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.