MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $25.25, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: GSEs; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
MGIC Investment provides private mortgage insurance (PMI), credit risk management, and ancillary services through wholly-owned subsidiaries including Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corporation (MGIC). In 2025, primary NIW was $60.2B with $303.1B direct IIF and $1.2B total revenues.... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $25.25, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: GSEs; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 31, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-09Recent Developments — MGIC Investment Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS MTG Reports Q1 Revenue of $297.08 Million, Exceeding Expectations - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS MGIC Investment (MTG) Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS MGIC INVESTMENT|WI ($MTG) Releases Q1 2026 Earnings - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative neutral
- NEWS MGIC Investment (NYSE:MTG) Misses Q1 CY2026 Revenue Estimates - TradingView — TradingView negative
- NEWS MGIC Investment (NYSE: MTG) Q1 2026 earnings, capital return and new $750M buyback - Stock Titan — Stock Titan positive
Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerGSEs10-K Item 1A: 'The substantial majority of our new insurance written ("NIW") is for loans purchased by the GSEs'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -3.0% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $25.25, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: GSEs; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 31, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $26.38 (+4.5%), stop $24.23 (−4.2%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $26.38 (+4.5% upside). Target $26.38 (+4.5%), stop $24.23 (−4.2%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Stop-loss: $24.23.
Concentration risk — Customer: GSEs; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth.
MGIC Investment Corporation trades at a P/E of 8.0 (forward 7.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Hold.
14 analysts cover MTG with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $29.
What does MGIC Investment Corporation do?MGIC Investment provides private mortgage insurance (PMI), credit risk management, and ancillary services through...
MGIC Investment provides private mortgage insurance (PMI), credit risk management, and ancillary services through wholly-owned subsidiaries including Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corporation (MGIC). In 2025, primary NIW was $60.2B with $303.1B direct IIF and $1.2B total revenues. The vast majority of NIW insures loans purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.