Value
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.4 |
| P/S | 7.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 1.9 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.7x
- ▸PEG: 5.94
MTG · Why this verdict
Why MGIC Investment (MTG) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.7 |
| ROA | 6.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.2 |
| FCF quality | 5.1 |
| Moat | 6.6 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 60%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 66% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
2.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.8 |
| EPS growth | 2.3 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -3%
Momentum
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 3.2 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 1.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.5 |
Insider
3.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $4,509,801 (0.084% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.5 |
| quality rank | 7.5 |
| growth rank | 1.0 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.3 |
| support resistance | 6.5 |
| 52w position | 7.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.4 |
| days to cover | 7.2 |
| volatility | 7.2 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.0 |
| beta | 8.9 |
| debt equity | 9.5 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Dividend: 235.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:52d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.5<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.45
Upside
-2.2%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 7.9; weakest: Growth at 2.0. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.9, Quality at 7.4, and Technical at 6.7; the weakest are Growth at 2.0, Momentum at 2.5, and Insider at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.45 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.