Radian Group is a high-quality specialty insurance business with a wide economic moat, a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak, 59% revenue growth, and an elite Rule of 40 score of 79 — but negative price momentum, concentrated exposure to the mortgage insurance segment, and elevated implied volatility of 91% temper the near-term entry case despite strong underlying fundamentals.
Thesis pillars
- Wide Moat Elite Quality→Stable
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak Consistent↑Improving
- Mortgage Insurance Segment Concentration↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 20, 2026
Radian Group Inc. (RDN) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty
Wait for pullback to $34.09. At $34.96 the A.R:R is 0.7:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $34.09 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Mortgage Insurance segment; Thin upside margin: 8.4%.
Radian Group is a U.S. private mortgage insurer operating a single Mortgage Insurance segment, with $282.5 billion insurance in force and $74.7 billion risk in force at December 31, 2025. Premiums on $55.2 billion of new insurance written in 2025 generated $618 million net... Read more
Wait for pullback to $34.09. At $34.96 the A.R:R is 0.7:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $34.09 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Mortgage Insurance segment; Thin upside margin: 8.4%. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Quality-value play. Wait for momentum improvement. Score 6.9/10, high confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and no CEO selling and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About Radian Group Inc.
About Radian Group Inc.
Radian Group's Mortgage Insurance segment earned pretax income from continuing operations of $791 million and net income from continuing operations of $618 million in 2025, on $55.2 billion of new insurance written—up from $52.0 billion in 2024. Insurance in force reached $282.5 billion and risk in force $74.7 billion at December 31, 2025. The company's $1.67 billion acquisition of Inigo, a Lloyd's specialty insurer, closed February 2, 2026, marking the beginning of a strategic transformation into a global multi-line specialty insurer.
Radian earns revenue through mortgage insurance premiums on residential first-lien loans with down payments below 20%. The GSEs are the primary beneficiaries of private mortgage insurance and impose PMIERs eligibility requirements; failure by Radian Guaranty to maintain that eligibility would effectively prohibit the company from writing new insurance on loans purchased by the GSEs, which represent the vast majority of the conventional mortgage secondary market. At December 31, 2025, 72% of total first-lien insurance in force was underwritten on a delegated basis and 25% on a non-delegated basis. Radian distributes mortgage credit risk through three quota-share reinsurance agreements (the 2025, 2026, and 2027 QSR Agreements, ceding portions of new insurance written from July 2025 through June 2028) and an excess-of-loss reinsurance facility with a panel of highly rated providers. Radian Guaranty maintained a PMIERs Cushion of $1.6 billion at December 31, 2025.
Show full overview
The PMIERs Cushion declined from $2.2 billion at December 31, 2024 to $1.6 billion at December 31, 2025, with the intercompany note used to partially fund the Inigo acquisition reducing Radian Guaranty's remaining buffer. The 10-K identifies GSE reform as a bilateral risk: changes to the GSEs' charters, business practices, or role in the housing finance market could significantly impact Radian's Mortgage Insurance business, while GSE privatization scenarios could either disrupt the PMIERs framework or expand the addressable market for private mortgage insurance. The company's reinsurance panel agreements partially offset this concentration by ceding portions of new insurance written through June 2028.
See also: Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty
From Radian Group Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Radian Group Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Is Radian Group Inc (RDN) a Bargain After 6.5% Drop? GF Value Sa - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
- NEWS Radian Group (NYSE:RDN) Reaches New 1-Year Low - Time to Sell? - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
- NEWS Radian Group (RDN) Gains 1.12% as Shares Approach Key Resistance at $41.70 - AAII Bearish - dars.gov.et — dars.gov.et neutral
- NEWS Radian Group (RDN) Gains 1.12% as Shares Approach Key Resistance at $41.70 - Sweep Order Flow - dars.gov.et — dars.gov.et neutral
- NEWS First Trust Advisors LP Trims Stock Holdings in Radian Group Inc. $RDN - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
Generated 2026-10-29T13:34:03Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerGSEs10-K Item 1: 'the GSEs, who are the primary beneficiaries of our mortgage insurance'
- HIGHProductMortgage Insurance segment10-K Item 1: 'As of December 31, 2025, we had one reportable business segment, Mortgage Insurance'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-21Item 5.02MEDIUMMichael Weinbach appointed CEO-Elect effective June 1, 2026, and CEO effective August 13, 2026. Richard G. Thornberry retiring as CEO effective August 12, 2026; remains as Strategic Advisor through December 31, 2026. Clean handoff with named successor.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-27Item 5.02LOWStockholders approved 2026 Equity Compensation Plan on May 21, 2026. Board granted annual LTI awards to named executive officers including CEO Thornberry, Interim CFO Kobell, COO Dickerson, General Counsel Hoffman, and CDO Ray. Routine annual compensatory arrangement.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-21Item 5.02MEDIUMChief Digital Officer Eric R. Ray notified Company of retirement effective July 1, 2026. No disagreement with Company operations, policies, or practices cited. No successor named.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-03Item 5.02LOW8-K/A amending February 12, 2026 filing. Compensation terms approved for Interim CFO Daniel Kobell: $500,000 annual salary effective February 21, 2026, 100% STI target, and $1,000,000 LTI target for 2026.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 ceiling hits
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $34.09. At $34.96 the A.R:R is 0.7:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $34.09 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Mortgage Insurance segment; Thin upside margin: 8.4%. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Quality-value play. Wait for momentum improvement. Target $37.91 (+8.4%), stop $32.31 (−8.2%), A.R:R 0.7:1. Score 6.9/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $37.91 (+8.4% upside). Target $37.91 (+8.4%), stop $32.31 (−8.2%), A.R:R 0.7:1. Stop-loss: $32.31.
Concentration risk — Product: Mortgage Insurance segment; Thin upside margin: 8.4%; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).
Radian Group Inc. trades at a P/E of 8.6 (forward 6.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.6/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
11 analysts cover RDN with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $44.
What does Radian Group Inc. do?Radian Group is a U.S. private mortgage insurer operating a single Mortgage Insurance segment, with $282.5 billion...
Radian Group is a U.S. private mortgage insurer operating a single Mortgage Insurance segment, with $282.5 billion insurance in force and $74.7 billion risk in force at December 31, 2025. Premiums on $55.2 billion of new insurance written in 2025 generated $618 million net income from continuing operations. The company acquired Lloyd's specialty insurer Inigo on February 2, 2026, beginning a transition to global multi-line specialty insurance.