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Radian Group Inc. (RDN) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $34.12. BUY gates pass at $35.65, but concentration risk — Product: Mortgage Insurance and analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $34.12 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.

Radian Group is the leading U.S. private mortgage insurer with $282.5B of insurance in force as of December 31, 2025, protecting GSEs and lenders against defaults on residential first-lien loans. In February 2026 it completed the $1.67B acquisition of Inigo (Lloyd's specialty... Read more

$35.65+7.3% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#3 of 10 Insurance - Specialty
Entry $34.12(Ma50 Sticky)Stop $32.62Target $36.65(resistance)A.R:R -0.0:1Setup A.R:R 1.7:1
Analyst target$40.67+14.1%6 analysts
$36.65our TP
$35.65price
$40.67mean
$45

Wait for pullback to $34.12. BUY gates pass at $35.65, but concentration risk — Product: Mortgage Insurance and analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $34.12 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Val8.2Qual6.5Grw4.1Mom6.4Sent6.1Ins3.8Peer4.5Tech5.6Risk6.85.9OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Mortgage Insurance
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Earnings in 5 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.2
P/E (Fwd)6.7
Mkt Cap$4.9B
EV/EBITDA4.8
Profit Mgn48.7%
ROE13.1%
Rev Growth2.7%
Beta0.77
Dividend2.85%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.67bullish
IV63%elevated
Max Pain$20-43.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductMortgage Insurance
    10-K Item 1A: 'As of December 31, 2025, we had one reportable business segment, Mortgage Insurance.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-21Item 5.02LOW
    Eric R. Ray (SVP, Chief Digital Officer) provided notice of retirement effective July 1, 2026. No disagreement cited. No successor named.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-03Item 5.02LOW
    Amendment: Board approved compensation for Daniel Kobell as Interim CFO — $500K base salary, 100% STI target, $1M LTI target for 2026.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-12Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Sumita Pandit (President and CFO) involuntarily terminated effective February 12, 2026. Daniel Kobell appointed Interim CFO; Robert Quigley elevated to Senior EVP. No disagreement on financial matters cited.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-09Item 5.02LOW
    Seraina Macia appointed as new director on February 9, 2026, increasing Board from 11 to 12 directors. No arrangement or understanding with any other person cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.0=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dMomentum 6.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
59 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $32.90Resistance $37.40

Price Targets

$33
$34
$37
A.Upside+2.8%
A.R:R-0.0:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1.1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.2% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RDN stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $34.12. BUY gates pass at $35.65, but concentration risk — Product: Mortgage Insurance and analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $34.12 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $36.65 (+2.8%), stop $32.62 (−9.3%), Setup A.R:R 1.7:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RDN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $36.65 (+7.3% upside). Target $36.65 (+2.8%), stop $32.62 (−9.3%), Setup A.R:R 1.7:1. Stop-loss: $32.62.

What are the risks of investing in RDN?

Concentration risk — Product: Mortgage Insurance; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 5 days (event risk).

Is RDN overvalued or undervalued?

Radian Group Inc. trades at a P/E of 8.2 (forward 6.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about RDN?

9 analysts cover RDN with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $41.

What does Radian Group Inc. do?Radian Group is the leading U.S. private mortgage insurer with $282.5B of insurance in force as of December 31, 2025,...

Radian Group is the leading U.S. private mortgage insurer with $282.5B of insurance in force as of December 31, 2025, protecting GSEs and lenders against defaults on residential first-lien loans. In February 2026 it completed the $1.67B acquisition of Inigo (Lloyd's specialty insurer), beginning a strategic transformation into a global multi-line specialty insurer.

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