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NMI Holdings Inc (NMIH) Stock Analysis

Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty

Wait for pullback to $37.43. At $37.91 the A.R:R is 1.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $37.43 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 5.6%; Negative momentum.

NMI Holdings provides private mortgage insurance through NMIC and Re One subsidiaries, approved to insure loans guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, with $221.4B of primary insurance-in-force and 2,193 customer lenders as of December 31, 2025. Revenue comes from mortgage... Read more

$37.91+6.4% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#4 of 10 Insurance - Specialty
Entry $37.43(Support Atr Sticky)Stop $35.55Target $40.14(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.1:1Setup A.R:R 1.5:1
Analyst target$46.14+21.7%7 analysts
$40.14our TP
$37.91price
$46.14mean
$50

Wait for pullback to $37.43. At $37.91 the A.R:R is 1.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $37.43 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 5.6%; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. V9 Gate blocked: Momentum 1.7 < 4.5 minimum; R/R 1.1x at spot < 1.5 minimum. Wait for improvement. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 5.6%
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA (1d, -1.4%)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.9
P/E (Fwd)7.1
Mkt Cap$2.9B
EV/EBITDA6.0
Profit Mgn55.1%
ROE16.2%
Rev Growth8.5%
Beta0.64
DividendNone
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C1.50bearish
IV94%elevated
Max Pain$30-20.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMregulatoryWisconsin OCI
    10-K Item 1: 'NMIC and Re One are domiciled in Wisconsin and principally regulated by the Wisconsin OCI.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-12Item 5.02LOW
    Board expanded to ten members; Renu Agrawal appointed as independent director effective Feb 12, 2026. Appointed to Audit Committee and Risk Committee. Standard non-employee director compensation.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Macd
0.9
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA (recent, shallow — too early to call)
GatesMomentum 1.7<4.5A.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
42 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $37.26Resistance $42.27

Price Targets

$36
$37
$40
A.Upside+5.9%
A.R:R1.1:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.9%
Max %3.9%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum 1.7 < 4.5 minimum
! R/R 1.1x at spot < 1.5 minimum
! Momentum score 1.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NMIH stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $37.43. At $37.91 the A.R:R is 1.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $37.43 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 5.6%; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. V9 Gate blocked: Momentum 1.7 < 4.5 minimum; R/R 1.1x at spot < 1.5 minimum. Wait for improvement. Target $40.14 (+5.9%), stop $35.55 (−6.6%), Setup A.R:R 1.5:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NMIH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $40.14 (+6.4% upside). Target $40.14 (+5.9%), stop $35.55 (−6.6%), Setup A.R:R 1.5:1. Stop-loss: $35.55.

What are the risks of investing in NMIH?

Thin upside margin: 5.6%; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA (1d, -1.4%).

Is NMIH overvalued or undervalued?

NMI Holdings Inc trades at a P/E of 7.9 (forward 7.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about NMIH?

12 analysts cover NMIH with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $46.

What does NMI Holdings Inc do?NMI Holdings provides private mortgage insurance through NMIC and Re One subsidiaries, approved to insure loans...

NMI Holdings provides private mortgage insurance through NMIC and Re One subsidiaries, approved to insure loans guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, with $221.4B of primary insurance-in-force and 2,193 customer lenders as of December 31, 2025. Revenue comes from mortgage insurance premiums on high-LTV residential loans; no individual customer accounted for more than 10% of 2025 revenues.

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