Skip to main content
NMIHNMI Holdings IncBuy Wait6.2·$37.38+0.89%
Open full analysis

NMI Holdings Inc (NMIH) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

Buy WaitDEATH CROSS (EXEMPT)Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty

Wait for pullback to $36.56. At $37.38 the A.R:R is 1.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $36.56 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 7.4%; Below 200-MA (19d, -2.5%).

NMI Holdings provides private mortgage insurance through its subsidiary NMIC, an approved insurer in all 50 states and D.C., underwriting high-LTV residential mortgage loans sold primarily to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. As of December 31, 2025, NMIC had $221.4B of primary... Read more

$37.38+9.6% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#5 of 10 Insurance - Specialty
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield11.12%
Entry $36.56(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $35.06Target $40.14(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.2:1Setup A.R:R 2.3:1
Analyst target$46.14+23.4%7 analysts
$40.14our TP
$37.38price
$46.14mean
$49

Wait for pullback to $36.56. At $37.38 the A.R:R is 1.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $36.56 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 7.4%; Below 200-MA (19d, -2.5%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 52. V9 Gate blocked: R/R 1.2x at spot < 1.5 minimum. Wait for improvement. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 9/11 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 43d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear, sector concentration cap sector=financial services 3/10). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 202643d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 7.4%
Below 200-MA (19d, -2.5%)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.5
P/E (Fwd)6.9
Mkt Cap$2.8B
EV/EBITDA5.9
Profit Mgn53.8%
ROE15.6%
Rev Growth5.9%
Beta0.56
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.09bullish
IV72%elevated
Max Pain$45+20.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotDeath cross exempted (quality + momentum high enough)Momentum 6.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 43d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSECTOR CONCENTRATION CAP sector=Financial Services 3/10RecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $35.12Resistance $38.75

Price Targets

$35
$37
$40
A.Upside+7.4%
A.R:R1.2:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.4%
Max %2.7%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! R/R 1.2x at spot < 1.5 minimum
! asymmetry at 1.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (43d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NMIH stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $36.56. At $37.38 the A.R:R is 1.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $36.56 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 7.4%; Below 200-MA (19d, -2.5%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 52. V9 Gate blocked: R/R 1.2x at spot < 1.5 minimum. Wait for improvement. Target $40.14 (+7.4%), stop $35.06 (−6.6%), Setup A.R:R 2.3:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NMIH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $40.14 (+9.6% upside). Target $40.14 (+7.4%), stop $35.06 (−6.6%), Setup A.R:R 2.3:1. Stop-loss: $35.06.

What are the risks of investing in NMIH?

Thin upside margin: 7.4%; Below 200-MA (19d, -2.5%).

Is NMIH overvalued or undervalued?

NMI Holdings Inc trades at a P/E of 7.5 (forward 6.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about NMIH?

14 analysts cover NMIH with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $46.

What does NMI Holdings Inc do?NMI Holdings provides private mortgage insurance through its subsidiary NMIC, an approved insurer in all 50 states and...

NMI Holdings provides private mortgage insurance through its subsidiary NMIC, an approved insurer in all 50 states and D.C., underwriting high-LTV residential mortgage loans sold primarily to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. As of December 31, 2025, NMIC had $221.4B of primary insurance in force across 2,193 lender customers. No individual customer exceeded 10% of consolidated revenues in 2025.

Related stocks: RDN (Radian Group Inc.) · FAF (First American Corporation (New) · AXS (Axis Capital Holdings Limited) · FNF (Fidelity National Financial, In) · RYAN (Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc.)
Home Stocks NMIH

Latest news

Latest News

Yahoo Finance47d agoEarnings
GuruFocus47d agoEarnings
Thelegaladvocate.com20d ago
Investing.com26d ago
MarketBeat26d ago
The Motley Fool40d ago
MarketBeat48d ago
The Manila Times20d ago
Moomoo55d ago
MarketBeat41d ago
Traders Union13d ago
Yahoo Finance46d agoEarnings
Yahoo Finance46d ago
Marketscreener.com46d agoEarnings
Marketscreener.com46d agoEarnings
Moomoo46d agoEarnings
Quiver Quantitative46d agoEarnings
StockStory46d agoEarnings
Marketscreener.com46d agoEarnings
TipRanks46d agoEarnings
Loading more...