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ESNTEssent Group Ltd.Sell5.5·$58.38+0.78%
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Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $58.38 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 8.7): -1.5.

Essent Group provides private mortgage insurance through Essent Guaranty (licensed in all 50 states), with ~$248.4B of mortgage insurance in force and ~$46.6B of new insurance written in 2025, plus reinsurance through Bermuda-based Essent Re. Revenue comes from insurance... Read more

$58.38+1.0% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#7 of 10 Insurance - Specialty
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield10.91%
IncomeYield2.40%(5y avg 1.91%)Payout18.21%sustainable
Stop $55.80Target $58.94(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.2:1
Analyst target$67.75+16.1%8 analysts
$58.94our TP
$58.38price
$67.75mean
$73

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $58.38 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 8.7): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 53d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Aug 7, 202653d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 45%
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 8.7): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.3
P/E (Fwd)7.6
Mkt Cap$5.4B
EV/EBITDA5.9
Profit Mgn53.6%
ROE12.1%
Rev Growth5.8%
Beta0.78
Dividend2.40%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.00bearish
IV70%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
3.5
Revenue Growth
3.9

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
3.0
Value Rank
3.5
Quality Rank
4.0
GatesA.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotMomentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.9>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 53d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
40 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $55.34Resistance $61.83

Price Targets

$56
$59
A.Upside+1.0%
A.R:R0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.0% upside)
! asymmetry at 0.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-07 (53d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ESNT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $58.38 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 8.7): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $55.80. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

What is the ESNT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $58.94 (+1.0% upside). Prior stop was $55.80. Stop-loss: $55.80.

What are the risks of investing in ESNT?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 8.7): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is ESNT overvalued or undervalued?

Essent Group Ltd. trades at a P/E of 8.3 (forward 7.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ESNT?

15 analysts cover ESNT with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $68.

What does Essent Group Ltd. do?Essent Group provides private mortgage insurance through Essent Guaranty (licensed in all 50 states), with ~$248.4B of...

Essent Group provides private mortgage insurance through Essent Guaranty (licensed in all 50 states), with ~$248.4B of mortgage insurance in force and ~$46.6B of new insurance written in 2025, plus reinsurance through Bermuda-based Essent Re. Revenue comes from insurance premiums on residential first-lien mortgages, with top-10 lending customers generating 59.3% of new insurance written in 2025.

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