Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT) Stock Analysis
Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty
Sell if holding. At $60.91, A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top ten customers (59.3%); Concentration risk — Customer: one customer.
Essent Group provides private mortgage insurance for U.S. residential first-lien mortgages through Essent Guaranty (licensed in all 50 states) and GSE credit risk transfer reinsurance through Bermuda-based Essent Re. As of December 31, 2025, had $248.4B of PMI in force;... Read more
Sell if holding. At $60.91, A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top ten customers (59.3%); Concentration risk — Customer: one customer. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomertop ten customers59%10-K Item 1A: 'Our top ten customers generated 59.3% of our NIW during year ended December 31, 2025'
- HIGHCustomerone customer10-K Item 1A: 'For the year ended December 31, 2025, one customer represented more than 10% of our consolidated revenues'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -0.8% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $60.91, A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top ten customers (59.3%); Concentration risk — Customer: one customer. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $57.84. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $63.90 (+5.6% upside). Prior stop was $57.84. Stop-loss: $57.84.
Concentration risk — Customer: top ten customers (59.3%); Concentration risk — Customer: one customer; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Essent Group Ltd. trades at a P/E of 8.8 (forward 7.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
13 analysts cover ESNT with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $68.
What does Essent Group Ltd. do?Essent Group provides private mortgage insurance for U.S. residential first-lien mortgages through Essent Guaranty...
Essent Group provides private mortgage insurance for U.S. residential first-lien mortgages through Essent Guaranty (licensed in all 50 states) and GSE credit risk transfer reinsurance through Bermuda-based Essent Re. As of December 31, 2025, had $248.4B of PMI in force; generated $46.6B in new insurance written in 2025.