Matador Resources is an attractively valued oil and gas producer trading at 5.8x forward earnings with a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak and 27% analyst-implied upside, but concentrated exposure to the Delaware Basin and oil prices creates meaningful downside risk if commodity prices mean-revert.
Thesis pillars
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak↑Improving
- Delaware Basin Concentration Risk↓Deteriorating
- Commodity Cycle Peak Momentum Headwind↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Matador Resources Company (MTDR) Stock Analysis
Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $48.66 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 5.3× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.43× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Delaware Basin (99.0%).
Matador Resources is an independent E&P company focused on the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring plays in the Delaware Basin of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas, producing 207,070 BOE per day in 2025 from 667.0 million BOE in proved reserves. The company generates revenue from oil... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $48.66 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 5.3× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.43× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Delaware Basin (99.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.50, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 7d<=7d and materials cycle peak fwd=5.3x,ratio=0.43x. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-30Recent Developments — Matador Resources Company
Latest news
- NEWS Analysts’ Opinions Are Mixed on These Energy Stocks: Matador Resources (MTDR) and Ranger Energy Services (RNGR) - The Gl — The Globe and Mail neutral
- NEWS Granite Ridge Resources, Riley Exploration Permian, Chord Energy, Northern Oil and Gas, and Matador Resources Shares Are — StockStory neutral
- NEWS Matador (MTDR) Q1 2026 Earnings: EPS $1.53 Beats Estimates - EPS Estimate Trend - Newser — Newser positive
- NEWS Matador Resources (MTDR) to Release Quarterly Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Is Matador Resources Co (MTDR) a Bargain After 4.9% Drop? GF Val - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
Generated 2026-07-30T22:29:13Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicDelaware Basin99%10-K Item 1: 'approximately 99% of our estimated total proved oil and natural gas reserves, or 662.2 million BOE, was attributable to the Delaware Basin'
- HIGHCommodityoil production58%10-K Item 1: 'Oil production comprised 58% of our total production (using a conversion ratio of one Bbl of oil per six Mcf of natural gas) for each of the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024.'
- MEDIUMregulatoryfederal lands10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 33% of our leasehold and mineral acres in the Delaware Basin is located on federal lands, which are subject to various requirements and regulations.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-27Item 5.02MEDIUMCFO Robert T. Macalik ceased service April 21, 2026. Christopher P. Calvert (previously COO) promoted to EVP/CFO; Glenn W. Stetson promoted to EVP/COO. No financial or accounting issues cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Revenue shrinking — -6.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $48.66 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 5.3× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.43× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Delaware Basin (99.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $45.25. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $62.19 (+27.8% upside). Prior stop was $45.25. Stop-loss: $45.25.
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 5.3× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.43× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Delaware Basin (99.0%); Concentration risk — Commodity: oil production (58.0%).
Matador Resources Company trades at a P/E of 12.1 (forward 5.3). TrendMatrix value score: 9.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
27 analysts cover MTDR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $69.
What does Matador Resources Company do?Matador Resources is an independent E&P company focused on the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring plays in the Delaware Basin of...
Matador Resources is an independent E&P company focused on the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring plays in the Delaware Basin of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas, producing 207,070 BOE per day in 2025 from 667.0 million BOE in proved reserves. The company generates revenue from oil (58% of production), natural gas, and NGLs at spot prices, plus midstream services revenue through San Mateo Midstream (51% owned).