Matador Resources Company (MTDR) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $54.05 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 6.1× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.44× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Delaware Basin (99.0%).
Matador Resources is an independent E&P company focused on the oil and liquids-rich Delaware Basin in SE New Mexico and West Texas, plus Haynesville shale in NW Louisiana. Produced 43.7M Bbl of oil and 191.3 Bcf of natural gas in 2025 (207,070 BOE/day); oil comprises 58% of... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $54.05 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 6.1× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.44× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Delaware Basin (99.0%). Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and materials cycle peak fwd=6.1x,ratio=0.44x. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-14Recent Developments — Matador Resources Company
Latest news
- NEWS Analysts’ Opinions Are Mixed on These Energy Stocks: Matador Resources (MTDR) and Ranger Energy Services (RNGR) - The Gl — The Globe and Mail neutral
- NEWS Granite Ridge Resources, Riley Exploration Permian, Chord Energy, Northern Oil and Gas, and Matador Resources Shares Are — StockStory neutral
- NEWS Matador (MTDR) Q1 2026 Earnings: EPS $1.53 Beats Estimates - EPS Estimate Trend - Newser — Newser positive
- NEWS Matador Resources (MTDR) to Release Quarterly Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Is Matador Resources Co (MTDR) a Bargain After 4.9% Drop? GF Val - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicDelaware Basin99%10-K Item 1: 'approximately 99% of our estimated total proved oil and natural gas reserves, or 662.2 million BOE, was attributable to the Delaware Basin'
- MEDIUMCommodityoil58%10-K Item 1: 'Oil production comprised 58% of our total production (using a conversion ratio of one Bbl of oil per six Mcf of natural gas) for each of the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-27Item 5.02MEDIUMChristopher P. Calvert promoted to EVP and CFO, Glenn W. Stetson promoted to EVP and COO, both effective April 21, 2026. Robert T. Macalik ceased as CFO; departure not related to financial or accounting issues.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -6.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $54.05 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 6.1× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.44× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Delaware Basin (99.0%). Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $50.37. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $65.40 (+21.0% upside). Prior stop was $50.37. Stop-loss: $50.37.
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 6.1× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.44× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Delaware Basin (99.0%); Weak overall score: 4.9/10.
Matador Resources Company trades at a P/E of 13.9 (forward 6.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
27 analysts cover MTDR with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $73.
What does Matador Resources Company do?Matador Resources is an independent E&P company focused on the oil and liquids-rich Delaware Basin in SE New Mexico and...
Matador Resources is an independent E&P company focused on the oil and liquids-rich Delaware Basin in SE New Mexico and West Texas, plus Haynesville shale in NW Louisiana. Produced 43.7M Bbl of oil and 191.3 Bcf of natural gas in 2025 (207,070 BOE/day); oil comprises 58% of production mix. Midstream operations are conducted 51% through San Mateo with Five Point as 49% JV partner.