Value
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.2 |
| P/S | 9.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.8 |
| PEG | 8.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.83
- ▸Attractively valued
MTDR · Why this verdict
Why Matador Resources (MTDR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.4 |
| ROA | 3.2 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 2.0 |
| Net margin | 6.7 |
| Current ratio | 2.9 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -55% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Rule of 40: -14 (fail)
Growth
0.9/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.9 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -6%
Momentum
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.7 |
| OBV | 5.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.5 |
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.4 |
| Price target | 8.9 |
| erm sentiment | 4.3 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 34%
Insider
5.3/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $655,723 (0.010% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.7 |
| quality rank | 4.2 |
| growth rank | 1.6 |
Technical
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.7 |
| support resistance | 8.0 |
| 52w position | 6.3 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.0 |
| days to cover | 3.5 |
| volatility | 2.7 |
| put call | 7.4 |
| implied vol | 1.4 |
| beta | 8.6 |
| debt equity | 7.4 |
- ▸High IV: 72%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.5 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 278.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:2.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:44d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.5<4.5
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=6.1x,ratio=0.44x
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
2.66
Upside
+21.0%
Downside
7.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.9 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.5<4.5, MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=6.1x,ratio=0.44x) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 2.66 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.5, Catalyst at 7.3, and Sentiment at 7.1; the weakest are Growth at 0.9, Peer rank at 2.9, and Momentum at 3.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.66 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.