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MPTMedical Properties Trust, Inc.Sell5.4·$5.00+0.30%
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Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (MPT) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Healthcare Facilities

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $5.00 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5.

Medical Properties Trust is a self-advised healthcare REIT with 384 facilities across 31 US states, 7 European countries, and Colombia, leased to operators under long-term net leases. Total assets were $15B at December 31, 2025; rent billed = 75.8% of $972M total revenues.... Read more

$5.00+0.6% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#6 of 13 REIT - Healthcare Facilities
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield26.26%
IncomeYield7.23%(5y avg 10.13%)Payout1054.55%
Stop $4.78Target $5.03(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$5.79+15.7%7 analysts
$5.03our TP
$5.00price
$5.79mean
$8

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $5.00 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 48d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-11
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202648d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)34.0
Mkt Cap$3.0B
EV/EBITDA12.9
Profit Mgn-11.5%
ROE-2.7%
Rev Growth12.6%
Beta1.46
Dividend7.23%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.56bullish
IV60%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.7
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Macd
3.8
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
1.1
Dividend Safety
3.5
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesMomentum 2.2<4.5A.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 48d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $4.86Resistance $5.28

Price Targets

$5
$5
A.Upside+0.6%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.7% upside)
! momentum at 2.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (48d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MPT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $5.00 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $4.78. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.

What is the MPT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $5.03 (+0.6% upside). Prior stop was $4.78. Stop-loss: $4.78.

What are the risks of investing in MPT?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is MPT overvalued or undervalued?

Medical Properties Trust, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 34.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MPT?

16 analysts cover MPT with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $6.

What does Medical Properties Trust, Inc. do?Medical Properties Trust is a self-advised healthcare REIT with 384 facilities across 31 US states, 7 European...

Medical Properties Trust is a self-advised healthcare REIT with 384 facilities across 31 US states, 7 European countries, and Colombia, leased to operators under long-term net leases. Total assets were $15B at December 31, 2025; rent billed = 75.8% of $972M total revenues. Circle (UK, 14.1% of assets), Priory (UK, 8.7%), and HSA (US, 8.0%) are the three largest tenants.

Related stocks: OHI (Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc) · SBRA (Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc.) · SILA (Sila Realty Trust, Inc.) · AHR (American Healthcare REIT, Inc.) · NHI (National Health Investors, Inc.)
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