Medical Properties Trust generates free cash flow equal to 71% of revenue despite a GAAP net loss, and its Rule of 40 score of 84 is elite, but 30% short interest, consecutive earnings misses, and leverage of 2.1x debt-to-equity create a high-risk setup with minimal upside margin.
Thesis pillars
- Fcf Positive Despite Gaap Loss→Stable
- High Short Interest Justified↑Improving
- Leverage Earnings Miss Pattern↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026
Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (MPT) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup · Sector Rotation edge
Real Estate · REIT - Healthcare Facilities
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $2.75: Risk below floor (2.6 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 6.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 33%; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.
MPT is a self-advised REIT that acquires and develops net-leased healthcare facilities across the U.S., Europe, and South America. At December 31, 2025, it held 384 facilities with roughly 39,000 licensed beds, generating $972 million in total 2025 revenues from long-term net... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $2.75: Risk below floor (2.6 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 6.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 33%; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 27, MACD bearish. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About Medical Properties Trust, Inc.
About Medical Properties Trust, Inc.
Medical Properties Trust held 384 healthcare facilities totaling approximately 39,000 licensed beds across 31 U.S. states and eight international markets at year-end 2025, generating $972 million in total revenues. The portfolio spans 165 general acute care hospitals, 68 behavioral health facilities, and 128 post-acute care facilities, with $15 billion in total assets and roughly half located outside the United States.
Revenue at Medical Properties Trust flows primarily through absolute-net leases—where tenants bear all operating costs including utilities, taxes, and maintenance—with rent-billed and straight-line rent accounting for 91% of 2025 revenues. The lease portfolio carries a weighted-average remaining initial term of 16.7 years, and 99% of leases include annual escalators tied to CPI or fixed minimums. Top tenants include Circle (36 U.K. facilities, leases through 2050), Priory Group (37 U.K. facilities through 2046), and Healthcare Systems of America (eight U.S. facilities through September 2044). The company had approximately $9.6 billion of debt outstanding as of February 2026, and the 10-K discloses that revenues depend particularly on Circle, Priory, HSA, Swiss Medical, and Lifepoint Behavioral, which together represent 42% of total assets.
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Tenant credit quality poses a concentrated risk distinct from the portfolio's geographic breadth. The company has experienced two tenant bankruptcies—Steward Healthcare in May 2024 and Prospect Medical Holdings in January 2025—requiring costly re-tenanting and impairment charges across both fiscal years. Circle, the largest tenant at 14.1% of total assets, holds 36 U.K. facilities under leases expiring in 2050; a default would trigger cross-default provisions across all 34 guaranteed leases, a structure the 10-K flags as a pronounced negative risk.
See also: Real Estate · REIT - Healthcare Facilities
From Medical Properties Trust, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Medical Properties Trust, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS MPT Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call and Webcast - Business Wire — Business Wire neutral
- NEWS Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (MPT) Q3 2025 Earnings Report - Results, Call & Slides - TipRanks — TipRanks neutral
- NEWS Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (MPT) Q3 2025 Earnings Report - Results, Call & Slides - tipranks.com — tipranks.com neutral
- NEWS Medical Properties Trust: From Crisis To Comeback (NYSE:MPT) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- NEWS Medical Properties Trust Q4 earnings, revenue beat as Prospect issues resolved - MSN — MSN positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:51Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMTenantCircle10-K Item 1A: 'our largest tenants – Circle, Priory, HSA, Swiss Medical, and Lifepoint Behavioral – represented 14.1%, 8.7%, 8.0%, 5.8%, and 5.4%, respectively, of our total assets'
- MEDIUMGeographicinternational (outside U.S.)10-K Item 1A: 'we had approximately 50.3% of our total assets located in eight different countries outside the U.S.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Volatile — 5.0% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $2.75: Risk below floor (2.6 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 6.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 33%; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 27, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $2.56. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $4.46 (+62.1% upside). Prior stop was $2.56. Stop-loss: $2.56.
Risk below floor (2.6 < 3.0).
Medical Properties Trust, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 55.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts cover MPT with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $5.
What does Medical Properties Trust, Inc. do?MPT is a self-advised REIT that acquires and develops net-leased healthcare facilities across the U.S., Europe, and...
MPT is a self-advised REIT that acquires and develops net-leased healthcare facilities across the U.S., Europe, and South America. At December 31, 2025, it held 384 facilities with roughly 39,000 licensed beds, generating $972 million in total 2025 revenues from long-term net leases.