Value
5.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.2 |
| p ocf | 7.3 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸P/OCF: 13.8x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
MPT · Why this verdict
Why Medical Properties Trust (MPT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 1.9 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.5 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 71%, FCF yield 26.3%)
- ▸Rule of 40: 84 (elite)
Growth
7.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 3.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.5 |
| quality rank | 1.5 |
| growth rank | 5.4 |
Technical
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.2 |
| support resistance | 8.9 |
| 52w position | 5.7 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.5 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 6.7 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.1 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.2 |
| debt equity | 2.9 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 30%
- ▸Above max pain $0
Catalyst
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 3.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:51d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.9<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.22
Upside
+1.1%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.46>1.3, MCap $3.0B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 2.8 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 7.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.9<4.5, ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.22 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.8, Technical at 7.2, and Quality at 5.8; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.9, Momentum at 2.9, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.22 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.