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NHINational Health Investors, Inc.Sell5.1·$71.96-1.06%
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National Health Investors, Inc. (NHI) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Healthcare Facilities

Sell if holding. At $71.96, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.7%; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

National Health Investors is a self-managed healthcare REIT with $2.7B in Real Estate Investments across 176 properties in 32 states leased via triple-net leases, plus a $634.3M SHOP segment of 26 senior housing communities. Total revenues were $375.6M in 2025, comprising 72.3%... Read more

$71.96+3.7% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#9 of 13 REIT - Healthcare Facilities
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield5.90%
IncomeYield5.06%(5y avg 5.85%)Payout118.06%
Stop $68.12Target $74.60(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$85.75+19.2%8 analysts
$74.60our TP
$71.96price
$85.75mean
$91

Sell if holding. At $71.96, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.7%; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 56d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-12
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202656d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Thin upside margin: 3.7%
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.5
P/E (Fwd)20.5
Mkt Cap$3.5B
EV/EBITDA17.4
Profit Mgn36.6%
ROE9.9%
Rev Growth-2.6%
Beta0.55
Dividend5.06%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.17bullish
IV62%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -2.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.9
Earnings Growth
4.9
Declining revenue: -3%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Volume
3.3
Rsi
3.5
Macd
8.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.7%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
2.9
Earnings History
3.3
Dividend Safety
3.5
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5A.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 56d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
36 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $67.94Resistance $77.70

Price Targets

$68
$75
A.Upside+3.7%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.7 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (56d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NHI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $71.96, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.7%; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $68.12. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NHI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $74.60 (+3.7% upside). Prior stop was $68.12. Stop-loss: $68.12.

What are the risks of investing in NHI?

Thin upside margin: 3.7%; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak growth.

Is NHI overvalued or undervalued?

National Health Investors, Inc. trades at a P/E of 23.5 (forward 20.5). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NHI?

12 analysts cover NHI with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $86.

What does National Health Investors, Inc. do?National Health Investors is a self-managed healthcare REIT with $2.7B in Real Estate Investments across 176 properties...

National Health Investors is a self-managed healthcare REIT with $2.7B in Real Estate Investments across 176 properties in 32 states leased via triple-net leases, plus a $634.3M SHOP segment of 26 senior housing communities. Total revenues were $375.6M in 2025, comprising 72.3% rental income, 21.3% resident fees, and 6.4% interest/other. NHI is selling 32 skilled nursing and 3 independent living facilities to NHC for $560M.

Related stocks: OHI (Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc) · SBRA (Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc.) · SILA (Sila Realty Trust, Inc.) · AHR (American Healthcare REIT, Inc.) · MPT (Medical Properties Trust, Inc.)
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