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National Health Investors, Inc. (NHI) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Healthcare Facilities

Earnings in 3 days (2026-05-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $71.54. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $77.23. Engine's entry $71.54 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Property Type: healthcare properties; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

National Health Investors is a self-managed healthcare REIT with $2.7 billion in owned senior housing and medical facility properties across 32 states, leased triple-net to 31 tenants, plus a SHOP segment of 26 senior housing communities. Total revenues were $375.6 million in... Read more

$77.23+11.3% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#8 of 13 REIT - Healthcare Facilities
Entry $71.54(Support Atr Sticky)Stop $67.76Target $85.07(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1Setup A.R:R 2.7:1
Analyst target$88.75+14.9%8 analysts
$85.07our TP
$77.23price
$88.75mean
$97

Wait for pullback to $71.54. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $77.23. Engine's entry $71.54 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Property Type: healthcare properties; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Val3.9Qual6.8Grw4.0Mom1.2Sent6.4Ins5.0Peer4.5Tech7.8Risk7.15.0OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Property Type: healthcare properties
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)25.5
P/E (Fwd)21.2
Mkt Cap$3.7B
EV/EBITDA18.6
Profit Mgn37.5%
ROE9.6%
Rev Growth-2.6%
Beta0.66
Dividend4.76%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.33bullish
IV44%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHPropertyhealthcare properties
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our investments are concentrated in healthcare properties'
  • MEDIUMTenantsmall number of significant tenants
    10-K Item 1A: 'A small number of tenants in our portfolio account for a significant percentage of the rental income we expect to generate from our portfolio'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-23Item 5.02MEDIUM
    CFO John Spaid notified NHI Board of retirement effective July 1, 2026; Todd Siefert appointed as EVP Corporate Finance effective June 1, 2026 and becomes CFO upon retirement. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-22Item 1.01MEDIUM
    NHI entered Purchase and Sale Agreement on April 21, 2026 to sell 32 SNFs and 3 ILFs to NHC/OP L.P. for $560 million, divesting properties under the long-standing Master Lease with NHC.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-22Item 1.02MEDIUM
    Termination of Master Agreement to Lease (October 17, 1991) with NHC/OP L.P. covering 35 facilities, in connection with the $560 million sale agreement entered April 21, 2026.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-23Item 5.02LOW
    Lilly H. Donohue appointed to NHI Board effective February 17, 2026. Initial term expires at 2026 Annual Meeting. Former CEO of Holiday Retirement and Everstory Partners.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 21, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.7%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.8
Ps
3.6
Analyst Target
4.0
P Ocf
6.8
P/OCF: 15.8x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
GatesMomentum 1.2<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 3d<=7dA.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=-0.0%)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
21 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $75.46Resistance $86.81

Price Targets

$68
$72
$85
A.Upside+10.2%
A.R:R0.0:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.0% upside)
! Earnings in 3 days - binary event risk
! Momentum score 1.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-04 (3d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NHI stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $71.54. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $77.23. Engine's entry $71.54 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Property Type: healthcare properties; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $85.07 (+10.2%), stop $67.76 (−14.0%), Setup A.R:R 2.7:1. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NHI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $85.07 (+11.3% upside). Target $85.07 (+10.2%), stop $67.76 (−14.0%), Setup A.R:R 2.7:1. Stop-loss: $67.76.

What are the risks of investing in NHI?

Concentration risk — Property Type: healthcare properties; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is NHI overvalued or undervalued?

National Health Investors, Inc. trades at a P/E of 25.5 (forward 21.2). TrendMatrix value score: 3.9/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about NHI?

12 analysts cover NHI with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $89.

What does National Health Investors, Inc. do?National Health Investors is a self-managed healthcare REIT with $2.7 billion in owned senior housing and medical...

National Health Investors is a self-managed healthcare REIT with $2.7 billion in owned senior housing and medical facility properties across 32 states, leased triple-net to 31 tenants, plus a SHOP segment of 26 senior housing communities. Total revenues were $375.6 million in 2025 (72.3% rental income, 21.3% resident fees, 6.4% interest).

Related stocks: OHI (Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc) · SBRA (Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc.) · MPT (Medical Properties Trust, Inc.) · AHR (American Healthcare REIT, Inc.) · CTRE (CareTrust REIT, Inc.)