CareTrust REIT, Inc. (CTRE) Stock Analysis
Temp Headwind edge
Real Estate · REIT - Healthcare Facilities
Sell if holding. At $38.00, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.0%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.
CareTrust REIT is a self-administered REIT owning 407 skilled nursing facilities, senior housing communities, and other healthcare properties in 32 states and the UK, leased to independent operators under triple-net leases. Revenue is primarily rental income; annualized... Read more
Sell if holding. At $38.00, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.0%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 62d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About CareTrust REIT, Inc.
About CareTrust REIT, Inc.
CareTrust REIT's 407 healthcare properties—skilled nursing and senior housing assets with 37,628 beds and units in 32 states and the U.K.—generated annualized contractual rental income with Ensign's master leases totaling $92.1 million, or 23% of the total, at December 31, 2025. Geographic concentrations by rental income are in California, the U.K., Texas, and Tennessee. Beyond owned properties, the company holds $899.3 million in mortgage-secured loans, mezzanine loans, and preferred equity investments.
CareTrust leases the majority of its portfolio under long-term triple-net arrangements, under which tenants pay all operating costs including insurance, taxes, maintenance, and capital expenditures. Ensign, the largest tenant with 113 properties, holds master leases with initial terms exceeding 10 years and three five-year renewal options; these leases contain cross-default provisions and are guaranteed by Ensign at the parent level. Ensign also guarantees the Pennant Master Lease, adding another 2% of annualized contractual rental income to the combined exposure. In December 2025, CareTrust established its first SHOP platform via three Texas senior housing communities managed by independent third-party operators under a RIDEA structure, directly participating in resident-fee revenue and operational costs.
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Ensign's direct leases and Pennant guarantee together represent 25% of annualized contractual rental income, and CareTrust's 10-K warns that dependence on Ensign rental payments may limit the company's ability to enforce its rights under the master leases. If Ensign experienced a material adverse event—through Medicaid rate reductions, staffing shortages, or financial deterioration—rental income could decline materially. CareTrust monitors tenant EBITDAR and EBITDARM coverage ratios monthly but holds no contractual right to direct operational decisions at leased properties.
See also: Real Estate · REIT - Healthcare Facilities
From CareTrust REIT, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-09Recent Developments — CareTrust REIT, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS CareTrust REIT Receives IBD Stock Rating Upgrade - Investor's Business Daily — Investor's Business Daily positive
- NEWS Flatrock Wealth Partners LLC's CareTrust REIT Inc(CTRE) Holding History - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
- NEWS CareTrust REIT Stockholders Back Board and Governance Plans - TipRanks — TipRanks positive
- NEWS Is CareTrust REIT’s UK Push And Nursing Expansion Reshaping The Investment Case For CTRE? - Sahm — Sahm positive
- NEWS CareTrust REIT (CTRE) Reports $628M in April Investments and Sec - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMTenantEnsign23%10-K Item 1A: 'properties leased to Ensign and held for investment represented $92.1 million, or 23%, of total annualized contractual rental income'
- MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia, U.K., Texas, and Tennessee10-K Item 1A: 'concentration of our properties in California, the U.K., Texas, and Tennessee as described in "Classification of properties in our Portfolio"'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $38.00, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.0%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $35.87. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $39.47 (+4.0% upside). Prior stop was $35.87. Stop-loss: $35.87.
Thin upside margin: 4.0%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2; Consecutive earnings misses (4).
CareTrust REIT, Inc. trades at a P/E of 23.4 (forward 21.2). TrendMatrix value score: 3.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
17 analysts cover CTRE with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $45.
What does CareTrust REIT, Inc. do?CareTrust REIT is a self-administered REIT owning 407 skilled nursing facilities, senior housing communities, and other...
CareTrust REIT is a self-administered REIT owning 407 skilled nursing facilities, senior housing communities, and other healthcare properties in 32 states and the UK, leased to independent operators under triple-net leases. Revenue is primarily rental income; annualized contractual rental income was approximately $400M+ as of year-end 2025 with 37,628 operational beds. Ensign Group is the largest tenant at 23% of annualized rental income.