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MKCMcCormick & Company, IncorporatHold6.0·$48.95-0.57%
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McCormick & Company, Incorporat (MKC) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $48.95, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Cyclical risk: PE expanding 1.8x (earnings normalizing); Thin upside margin: 8.8%.

McCormick manufactures and markets herbs, spices, seasonings, condiments, and flavor solutions globally through Consumer (~58% of 2025 net sales) and Flavor Solutions (~42%) segments. Products reach retailers in ~150 countries and multinational food manufacturers; approximately... Read more

$48.95+8.8% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#5 of 26 Packaged Foods
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield2.83%
IncomeYield3.92%(5y avg 2.11%)Payout30.00%sustainable
Stop $46.29Target $53.27(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.3:1
Analyst target$61.23+25.1%13 analysts
$53.27our TP
$48.95price
$61.23mean
$77

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $48.95, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Cyclical risk: PE expanding 1.8x (earnings normalizing); Thin upside margin: 8.8%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15

Recent Developments — McCormick & Company, Incorporat

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jun 25, 202611d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Margin of safety: 46%
Wide economic moat
Risks
Cyclical risk: PE expanding 1.8x (earnings normalizing)
Thin upside margin: 8.8%
Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.0
P/E (Fwd)14.7
Mkt Cap$13.2B
EV/EBITDA13.6
Profit Mgn23.1%
ROE25.3%
Rev Growth16.7%
Beta0.64
Dividend3.92%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.56bullish
IV60%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerWal-Mart Stores, Inc.12%
    10-K Item 1: 'Sales to one of our Consumer segment customers, Wal-Mart Stores, Inc., accounted for consolidated sales of approximately 12% in 2025, 2024, and 2023.'
  • LOWCustomerPepsiCo, Inc.12%
    10-K Item 1: 'Sales to one of our Flavor Solutions segment customers, PepsiCo, Inc., accounted for consolidated sales of approximately 12% in 2025'
  • MEDIUMCustomertop two large customers24%
    10-K Item 1A: 'two large customers that, in the aggregate, constituted approximately 24% of consolidated sales in 2025'
  • MEDIUMCustomertop three Flavor Solutions customers49%
    10-K Item 1: 'the top three customers in our Flavor Solutions segment represented 49% of our global Flavor Solutions sales'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-17Item 5.02LOW
    Andrew Foust appointed Chief Integration Officer for Unilever combination on April 15, 2026; remains executive officer. Patrick Davis appointed Interim President Americas while Foust leads integration.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-18Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Gregory Repas (VP & Controller, Principal Accounting Officer) retiring July 1, 2026; stepping down April 1, 2026. Julie Giese appointed VP & Controller and PAO effective April 1, 2026 as successor.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
1.1
Support Resistance
2.6
52w Position
2.9
GatesA.R:R 1.3 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentEARNINGS PROXIMITY 11d<=14d (soft)Momentum 6.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $45.53Resistance $50.15

Price Targets

$46
$53
A.Upside+8.8%
A.R:R1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 1.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-25 (11d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MKC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $48.95, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Cyclical risk: PE expanding 1.8x (earnings normalizing); Thin upside margin: 8.8%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $53.27 (+8.8%), stop $46.29 (−5.7%), A.R:R 1.3:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MKC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $53.27 (+8.8% upside). Target $53.27 (+8.8%), stop $46.29 (−5.7%), A.R:R 1.3:1. Stop-loss: $46.29.

What are the risks of investing in MKC?

Cyclical risk: PE expanding 1.8x (earnings normalizing); Thin upside margin: 8.8%; Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is MKC overvalued or undervalued?

McCormick & Company, Incorporat trades at a P/E of 8.0 (forward 14.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MKC?

20 analysts cover MKC with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $61.

What does McCormick & Company, Incorporat do?McCormick manufactures and markets herbs, spices, seasonings, condiments, and flavor solutions globally through...

McCormick manufactures and markets herbs, spices, seasonings, condiments, and flavor solutions globally through Consumer (~58% of 2025 net sales) and Flavor Solutions (~42%) segments. Products reach retailers in ~150 countries and multinational food manufacturers; approximately 39% of 2025 sales from non-US operations with 14,100 employees worldwide.

Related stocks: CENT (Central Garden & Pet Company) · CENTA (Central Garden & Pet Company) · MKC-V (McCormick & Company, Incorporat) · POST (Post Holdings, Inc.) · DAR (Darling Ingredients Inc.)
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