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FLOFlowers Foods, Inc.Sell5.4·$7.79-0.13%
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Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $7.79 — A.R:R 0.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 customers (57.7%).

Flowers Foods is the second-largest packaged bakery company in the US, producing breads, buns, rolls, snack items, and baking mixes under Nature’s Own, DKB, Canyon Bakehouse, Simple Mills, Wonder, and Tastykake brands. It sells through supermarkets, mass, club, and foodservice... Read more

$7.79+0.5% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#12 of 26 Packaged Foods
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield14.53%
IncomeYield6.42%(5y avg 4.77%)Payout282.86%at-risk
Stop $7.24Target $7.83(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.0:1
Analyst target$9.00+15.5%5 analysts
$7.83our TP
$7.79price
$9.00mean
$7
$14

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $7.79 — A.R:R 0.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 customers (57.7%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 62d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Aug 14, 202662d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 customers (57.7%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.3
P/E (Fwd)9.4
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA5.6
Profit Mgn1.4%
ROE5.4%
Rev Growth6.8%
Beta0.41
Dividend6.42%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.67bullish
IV44%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerWalmart/Sam's Club22%
    10-K Item 1: 'our largest customer, Walmart/Sam’s Club, represented 21.5% of the company’s sales'
  • HIGHCustomertop-10 customers58%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our top 10 customers in Fiscal 2025 accounted for 57.7% of sales'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-30Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Terry S. Thomas (chief growth officer) departing April 24, 2026; role dissolved. Expected severance of 18 months base salary plus 12 months COBRA in exchange for a release of claims. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-23Item 5.02LOW
    George E. Deese (director, 61 years of service) retiring at 2026 annual meeting; Edward J. Casey Jr. also not standing for re-election. Board to reduce from 11 to 9 members post-meeting. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Bollinger
1.5
Support Resistance
2.2

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
2.0
Value Rank
5.3
Growth Rank
6.2
GatesA.R:R 0.0 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.2>=4.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 62d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $6.69Resistance $8.10

Price Targets

$7
$8
A.Upside+0.5%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.5% upside)
! asymmetry at 0.0 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-14 (62d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FLO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $7.79 — A.R:R 0.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 customers (57.7%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49. Prior stop was $7.24. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FLO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $7.83 (+0.5% upside). Prior stop was $7.24. Stop-loss: $7.24.

What are the risks of investing in FLO?

Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 customers (57.7%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5.

Is FLO overvalued or undervalued?

Flowers Foods, Inc. trades at a P/E of 22.3 (forward 9.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FLO?

13 analysts cover FLO with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $9.

What does Flowers Foods, Inc. do?Flowers Foods is the second-largest packaged bakery company in the US, producing breads, buns, rolls, snack items, and...

Flowers Foods is the second-largest packaged bakery company in the US, producing breads, buns, rolls, snack items, and baking mixes under Nature’s Own, DKB, Canyon Bakehouse, Simple Mills, Wonder, and Tastykake brands. It sells through supermarkets, mass, club, and foodservice channels via a DSD distribution network of ~5,772 territories.

Related stocks: SENEA (Seneca Foods Corp.) · HLF (Herbalife Ltd.) · CENTA (Central Garden & Pet Company) · CENT (Central Garden & Pet Company) · MKC (McCormick & Company, Incorporat)
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