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DVNDevon Energy CorporationSell5.2·$44.91+1.66%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Devon Energy offers an attractive valuation at 8.0x forward earnings with more than 26% upside to analyst targets and a risk/reward ratio of roughly 5.8-to-1, but recurring earnings misses and declining revenue limit near-term conviction; the technical setup is constructive but the fundamental execution record argues for patience.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation With Large Analyst UpsideStable
  • Recurring Earnings Misses Signal Execution RiskDeteriorating
  • Declining Revenue Weak Growth ProfileStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellQualityShortModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Earnings in 4 days (2026-08-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $44.91: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Earnings in 4 days (event risk).

Devon Energy Corporation, an independent energy company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. The company operates in Delaware Basin located in southeast New Mexico and west Texas, Eagle Ford... Read more

$44.91+19.1% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#37 of 48 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield3.16%
IncomeYield2.34%(5y avg 5.08%)Payout26.74%sustainable
Stop $42.46Target $53.45(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.8:1
Analyst target$59.38+32.2%26 analysts
$53.45our TP
$44.91price
$59.38mean
$68

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $44.91: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Earnings in 4 days (event risk). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-31
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 20264d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Positive insider activity
Risks
Earnings in 4 days (event risk)
Consecutive earnings misses (3)
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.4
P/E (Fwd)8.4
Mkt Cap$50.9B
EV/EBITDA5.1
Profit Mgn14.2%
ROE15.2%
Rev Growth-0.8%
Beta0.43
Dividend2.34%
Rating analysts33

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C2.03bearish
IV52%elevated
Max Pain$30-33.2% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-07Item 2.01MEDIUM
    Devon Energy completed acquisition of Coterra Energy Inc. on May 7, 2026, following stockholder approval by both companies on May 4, 2026. Each Coterra share converted to 0.70 Devon shares; Coterra now a wholly-owned subsidiary of Devon.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -0.8% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
2.3
Declining revenue: -1%

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
2.8
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MEarnings in 4 days

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
2.1
Support Resistance
2.1
52w Position
7.1
GatesEARNINGS PROXIMITY 4d<=7dMomentum 5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.1>=4.5A.R:R 1.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $40.05Resistance $46.20

Price Targets

$42
$53
A.Upside+19.1%
A.R:R1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:4d<=7d

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (4d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DVN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $44.91: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Earnings in 4 days (event risk). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $42.46. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DVN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $53.45 (+19.1% upside). Prior stop was $42.46. Stop-loss: $42.46.

What are the risks of investing in DVN?

Earnings in 4 days (event risk); Consecutive earnings misses (3); Weak growth.

Is DVN overvalued or undervalued?

Devon Energy Corporation trades at a P/E of 12.4 (forward 8.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DVN?

33 analysts cover DVN with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $59.

What does Devon Energy Corporation do?Devon Energy Corporation, an independent energy company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of...

Devon Energy Corporation, an independent energy company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. The company operates in Delaware Basin located in southeast New Mexico and west Texas, Eagle Ford located in North America, Anadarko Basin located in western Oklahoma, Williston Basin located in North Dakota, and Powder River Basin located in Wyoming. Devon Energy Corporation was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

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