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KVYOKlaviyo, Inc. Series ABuy Wait6.7·$18.43-4.85%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

The business generates an 18% free cash flow margin and passes the Rule of 40 with a score of 46 despite a GAAP loss, while trading at a forward P/E of 13.5x against 28% revenue growth — but a confirmed downtrend with a death cross formation and 77.9% commercial concentration in a single counterparty block new entry; the setup calls for patience until technical conditions improve.

Thesis pillars

  • Undervalued Relative To GrowthDeteriorating
  • Fcf Positive Rule Of 40Stable
  • Single Counterparty ConcentrationDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Klaviyo, Inc. Series A (KVYO) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 2/5GrowthModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Earnings in 6 days (2026-08-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $15.48. Recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $18.43. Engine's entry $15.48 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Counterparty: Shopify (77.9%); Earnings in 6 days (event risk).

Klaviyo provides a B2C customer relationship management platform enabling consumer companies to manage marketing, service, and analytics using unified consumer data, serving over 193,000 businesses globally. The company generated $1,234.0 million in revenue in 2025 (31.6%... Read more

$18.43+42.5% A.UpsideScore 6.7/10#7 of 125 Software - Application
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield4.17%
Entry $15.48(Default 5pct Sticky)Stop $13.16Target $26.14(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.8:1
Analyst target$29.05+57.6%21 analysts
$26.14our TP
$18.43price
$29.05mean
$37

Wait for pullback to $15.48. Recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $18.43. Engine's entry $15.48 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Counterparty: Shopify (77.9%); Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 58. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.60, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Klaviyo, Inc. Series A

About Klaviyo, Inc. Series A

Klaviyo generated $1,234.0 million in revenue in 2025, up 31.6% year-over-year from $937.5 million in 2024, serving more than 193,000 businesses globally on its B2C CRM platform at December 31, 2025. The company achieved a gross profit margin of 74.7% in 2025 while reducing net losses to $31.8 million from $46.1 million in 2024. Klaviyo employed 2,368 people at year-end 2025 across offices in the United States, United Kingdom, Australia, Ireland, Singapore, and France.

Klaviyo sells monthly subscription plans to consumer brands, priced on the number of active consumer profiles stored and the volume of emails, text messages, and WhatsApp messages sent; it does not price on seats. The company began in SMB eCommerce and has expanded into mid-market and enterprise customers, with international accounts growing from approximately 92,000 to 108,000 during 2025. Competition comes primarily from Adobe, Salesforce, Mailchimp, and Braze. Customer acquisition is primarily inbound through word-of-mouth, agency partnerships, and platform integrations. As of December 31, 2025, approximately 77.9% of ARR came from customers who also use Shopify's platform, and the Shopify partnership agreement expires in 2029. Revenue expands naturally as customers grow their consumer base, add messaging channels, or adopt additional offerings such as Customer Agent, Marketing Agent, and Advanced KDP.

Show full overview

The Shopify platform dependency is the most quantified concentration risk in the filing: 77.9% of Klaviyo's ARR at December 31, 2025 derived from Shopify merchants, yet only 7.4% of new ARR in 2025 came through the Shopify app store directly — meaning the dependency extends beyond distribution to data integration itself. The current Shopify agreement expires in 2029; if Shopify refuses to renew or degrades interoperability, the utility of Klaviyo's platform and demand for its products could decline materially. Shopify could also embed competing marketing or analytics capabilities into its platform, reducing customer reliance on Klaviyo.

See also: Technology · Software - Application

From Klaviyo, Inc. Series A's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-30

Recent Developments — Klaviyo, Inc. Series A

Generated 2026-07-30T23:08:43Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 20266d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Counterparty: Shopify (77.9%)
Earnings in 6 days (event risk)
Below 200-MA, MA slope -9.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)18.7
Mkt Cap$5.8B
EV/EBITDA-168.9
Profit Mgn-0.7%
ROE-0.8%
Rev Growth27.9%
Beta0.63
DividendNone
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.83neutral
IV97%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHcounterpartyShopify78%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 77.9% of our ARR was derived from customers who also use Shopify ... platform'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-05Item 5.02MEDIUM
    CFO Amanda Whalen informed the Company of her intent to step down effective August 21, 2026, then serve as consultant through November 16, 2026. Formal CFO search initiated. Departure not related to any disagreement. No permanent successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Bollinger
2.3
Support Resistance
3.3
Gap
6.0
GatesEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.5>=5.5A.R:R 2.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60SEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Speculative
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $15.47Resistance $19.80

Price Targets

$13
$15
$26
A.Upside+42.5%
A.R:R2.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KVYO stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $15.48. Recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $18.43. Engine's entry $15.48 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Counterparty: Shopify (77.9%); Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 58. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $26.14 (+41.8%), stop $13.16 (−40.0%), A.R:R 2.8:1. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KVYO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $26.14 (+42.5% upside). Target $26.14 (+41.8%), stop $13.16 (−40.0%), A.R:R 2.8:1. Stop-loss: $13.16.

What are the risks of investing in KVYO?

Concentration risk — Counterparty: Shopify (77.9%); Earnings in 6 days (event risk); Below 200-MA, MA slope -9.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is KVYO overvalued or undervalued?

Klaviyo, Inc. Series A trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 18.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about KVYO?

30 analysts cover KVYO with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $29.

What does Klaviyo, Inc. Series A do?Klaviyo provides a B2C customer relationship management platform enabling consumer companies to manage marketing,...

Klaviyo provides a B2C customer relationship management platform enabling consumer companies to manage marketing, service, and analytics using unified consumer data, serving over 193,000 businesses globally. The company generated $1,234.0 million in revenue in 2025 (31.6% growth), with subscription pricing based on active consumer profiles and message volume.

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