Skip to main content
GWREGuidewire Software, Inc.Sell5.2·$122.56+3.41%
Open full analysis

Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $122.56 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Guidewire provides cloud-based P&C insurance core systems (InsuranceSuite for large carriers, InsuranceNow for mid-market) on its proprietary Guidewire Cloud Platform hosted on AWS, serving P&C insurers globally. Revenue comes from multi-year subscription agreements priced... Read more

$122.56+46.9% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#84 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield2.77%
Stop $113.98Target $180.09(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.1:1
Analyst target$207.00+68.9%13 analysts
$180.09our TP
$122.56price
$207.00mean
$300

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $122.56 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Sep 3, 202681d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Analyst upside: 47%
Risks
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)65.9
P/E (Fwd)29.8
Mkt Cap$10.2B
EV/EBITDA77.5
Profit Mgn11.3%
ROE11.9%
Rev Growth26.9%
Beta0.92
DividendNone
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C3.11bearish
IV74%elevated
Max Pain$250+104.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerten largest customers20%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our ten largest customers accounted for 20% and 22% of our revenue in fiscal years 2025 and 2024, respectively'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
2.5
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.9
Quality Rank
5.6
Growth Rank
7.7
GatesMomentum 1.8<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 81d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
42 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $113.67Resistance $173.18

Price Targets

$114
$180
A.Upside+46.9%
A.R:R3.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 1.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-09-03 (81d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GWRE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $122.56 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $113.98. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GWRE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $180.09 (+46.9% upside). Prior stop was $113.98. Stop-loss: $113.98.

What are the risks of investing in GWRE?

Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is GWRE overvalued or undervalued?

Guidewire Software, Inc. trades at a P/E of 65.9 (forward 29.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GWRE?

21 analysts cover GWRE with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $207.

What does Guidewire Software, Inc. do?Guidewire provides cloud-based P&C insurance core systems (InsuranceSuite for large carriers, InsuranceNow for...

Guidewire provides cloud-based P&C insurance core systems (InsuranceSuite for large carriers, InsuranceNow for mid-market) on its proprietary Guidewire Cloud Platform hosted on AWS, serving P&C insurers globally. Revenue comes from multi-year subscription agreements priced primarily on Direct Written Premium managed; 3,772 employees as of July 31, 2025 with fiscal year ending July 31.

Related stocks: DAVE (Dave Inc.) · KARO (Karooooo Ltd.) · PTC (PTC Inc.) · GRND (Grindr Inc.) · YMM (Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.)
Home Stocks GWRE

Latest news

Latest News

MarketBeat48d ago
Yahoo Finance48d ago
Thelegaladvocate.com19d ago
Moomoo19d ago
MarketBeat19d agoAnalyst
MarketBeat19d agoEarnings
Newser26d ago
GuruFocus33d ago
StockStory33d ago
MSN40d ago
GuruFocus13d ago
StockStory13d agoEarnings
TradingView13d agoEarnings
Kavout13d ago
GuruFocus28d ago
MarketBeat34d ago
Stock Titan34d ago
MarketBeat41d ago
Investing.com UK41d ago
Simplywall.st13d ago
Loading more...