Guidewire has compiled four quarters of substantial earnings outperformance and converts cash at nearly twice its reported net income, supporting a high-quality growth profile; however, a confirmed price downtrend with a hard technical block keeps the setup on hold until the trend heals, at which point analysts project 50% upside from current levels.
Thesis pillars
- Consistent Earnings Outperformance↓Deteriorating
- Superior Free Cash Conversion→Stable
- Confirmed Downtrend Blocks Entry↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Sep 11, 2026
Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Technology · Software - Application
Sell if holding. At $166.92, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: P&C insurance industry customers; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.
Guidewire sells cloud-based core systems to property and casualty insurers, mainly InsuranceSuite and InsuranceNow, covering policy administration, billing, claims, pricing and underwriting, plus digital and analytics products. Subscriptions are priced largely on direct written... Read more
Sell if holding. At $166.92, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: P&C insurance industry customers; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 35d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Guidewire Software, Inc.
About Guidewire Software, Inc.
Guidewire's ten largest customers accounted for 21% of revenue in fiscal 2026 and 20% in fiscal 2025, and its ten largest customers by ARR accounted for 20% of total ARR at July 31, 2026. Founded in 2001, the company sells InsuranceSuite and InsuranceNow, cloud-based core systems that property and casualty insurers use to run policy, billing, and claims operations, to carriers ranging from global groups to regional and local providers.
Guidewire prices subscription services for core products generally on the amount of Direct Written Premium managed on its platform, while certain cloud-delivered products are priced on usage and resource consumption. Initial subscription agreements are generally five years with annual renewals, and some customers sign initial terms of seven years or longer. Revenue is recognized ratably over the contract term. The company also offers term licenses, mainly to existing on-premise customers, support priced as a percentage of license fees, and professional services billed monthly on a time-and-materials basis or as fixed-fee engagements. It reaches customers through its direct global sales team and third-party global system integrators. The products run on the Guidewire Cloud Platform, an infrastructure layer hosted on Amazon Web Services, and are sold alongside digital engagement tools, analytics, HazardHub property risk data, and Cyence cyber-risk modeling.
Show full overview
Switching cost is the most concrete moat the filing supports, and it cuts both ways. Customer evaluation cycles are often extensive, implementation typically lasts six to 24 months or longer, and the platform is described as central to insurers' operations, which tends to anchor customers once live. Against that, some customers are the world's largest property and casualty insurers with significant bargaining power, and the filing says they can buy similar products from other vendors or develop systems internally, and have sought advantageous pricing and commercial terms. In September 2026 the company disclosed via Form 8-K that its Chief Accounting Officer, David Peterson, plans to retire effective November 4, 2026.
See also: Technology · Software - Application
From Guidewire Software, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted October 18, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Guidewire Software, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Comerica Bank Acquires 26,912 Shares of Guidewire Software, Inc. $GWRE - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS 3 Reasons We’re Fans of Guidewire Software (GWRE) - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Guidewire Software (GWRE) Pulls Back 2.98%: Navigating Key Support Levels - AAII Bearish - thelegaladvocate.com — thelegaladvocate.com negative
- NEWS Is Guidewire Software, Inc. (NYSE:GWRE) Potentially Undervalued? - Moomoo — Moomoo positive
- NEWS Guidewire Software (NYSE:GWRE) Stock Rating Lowered by Zacks Research - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
Generated 2026-10-29T12:43:33Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerten largest customers21%10-K Item 1A: 'Our ten largest customers accounted for 21% and 20% of our revenue in fiscal years 2026 and 2025, respectively'
- HIGHCustomerP&C insurance industry customers10-K Item 1A: 'Our revenue and ARR are dependent on orders from customers in the P&C insurance industry'
- MEDIUMSupplierAmazon Web Services hosting10-K Item 1: 'GWCP is a Guidewire-developed infrastructure layer enabled by and hosted on Amazon Web Services'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-09-03Item 5.02MEDIUMSenior VP and Chief Accounting Officer David Peterson notified the company on Sept 1, 2026 that he will retire effective Nov 4, 2026. No successor named in the text provided.SEC filing →
- 2026-07-22Item 5.02LOWBoard appointed Alexander Vollert, former AXA SA Chief Operating Officer, as a director effective Aug 1, 2026; initial term runs through the 2026 annual meeting. No arrangements with other persons cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $166.92, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: P&C insurance industry customers; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $155.24. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $185.56 (+11.2% upside). Prior stop was $155.24. Stop-loss: $155.24.
Concentration risk — Customer: P&C insurance industry customers; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Weak overall score: 4.9/10.
Guidewire Software, Inc. trades at a P/E of 102.4 (forward 31.2). TrendMatrix value score: 4.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
22 analysts cover GWRE with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $213.
What does Guidewire Software, Inc. do?Guidewire sells cloud-based core systems to property and casualty insurers, mainly InsuranceSuite and InsuranceNow,...
Guidewire sells cloud-based core systems to property and casualty insurers, mainly InsuranceSuite and InsuranceNow, covering policy administration, billing, claims, pricing and underwriting, plus digital and analytics products. Subscriptions are priced largely on direct written premium managed on the platform, with initial terms generally five years, plus licenses, support and services. The platform is hosted on Amazon Web Services.