Geopark screens as attractively valued on a forward basis, but the engine flags multiple concerning factors - a possible commodity-cycle earnings peak, a price target already reached, failed momentum and asymmetry gates, elevated leverage, and net insider selling - consistent with its recommendation to consider reducing the position rather than adding to it.
Thesis pillars
- Commodity Cycle Peak Earnings→Stable
- Elevated Leverage Penalty→Stable
- Limited Upside Target Reached→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Geopark Ltd (GPRK) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge
Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $9.95 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 3.6× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.41× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced..
GeoPark Limited operates as an oil and natural gas exploration and production company in Chile, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, Ecuador, and other Latin American countries. It engages in the exploration, development, drilling, and production of oil and natural gas reserves. The... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $9.95 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 3.6× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.41× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.. Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 28d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and materials cycle peak fwd=3.6x,ratio=0.41x. Suitability: aggressive.
Upcoming dated catalysts
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Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $9.95 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 3.6× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.41× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.. Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $9.25. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $11.44 (+15.0% upside). Prior stop was $9.25. Stop-loss: $9.25.
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 3.6× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.41× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5.
Geopark Ltd trades at a P/E of 8.8 (forward 3.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts cover GPRK with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $10.
What does Geopark Ltd do?GeoPark Limited operates as an oil and natural gas exploration and production company in Chile, Colombia, Brazil,...
GeoPark Limited operates as an oil and natural gas exploration and production company in Chile, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, Ecuador, and other Latin American countries. It engages in the exploration, development, drilling, and production of oil and natural gas reserves. The company was formerly known as GeoPark Holdings Limited and changed its name to GeoPark Limited in May 2009. GeoPark Limited was founded in 2002 and is based in Bogotá, Colombia.