Value
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.2 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 3.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.08
- ▸Attractively valued
GPRK · Why this verdict
Why Geopark (GPRK) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Earnings appear to reflect a commodity-price cycle peak: a forward P/E of 3.5x sits far below the 12x threshold and the forward/trailing ratio of 0.41x is below the 0.55 mean-reversion marker, suggesting the current earnings run rate may not be sustainable. Bear case | Forward P/E should normalize toward or above 6x over the next 12 months if the commodity-driven earnings surge partially reverses as expected. | →Stable |
| CounterA persistently low forward P/E can also reflect a genuinely underpriced stock rather than an unsustainable earnings peak, especially if commodity prices remain structurally elevated rather than mean-reverting. | ||
Elevated leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.2 drawing a leverage penalty in the engine's model, adds financial risk on top of the commodity-cycle concerns. Bear case | Debt-to-equity should fall below 1.5 over the next 12 months if the company delevers using its strong current cash flow. | →Stable |
| CounterThe company shows excellent cash conversion at 254% of FCF to net income, so even elevated leverage may be comfortably serviced and reduced quickly without financial distress. | ||
The stock has already reached its analyst price target with modeled upside at just -1.8%, per the engine's target check, indicating limited further re-rating potential at current levels. Warnings | Modeled upside should move back above 15% over the next 12 months if the price target is revised higher or the stock pulls back to a more attractive entry. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst price targets are frequently revised upward following strong earnings, so a target-reached reading can resolve itself through target upgrades rather than requiring the stock to fall. | ||
The setup has failed both the momentum gate (3.1 versus a 4.5 threshold) and the asymmetry gate (a negative -0.2 ratio), signaling an unfavorable near-term risk/reward profile despite an oversold reading. Engine gate (failed) | The momentum score should climb above 4.5 and the asymmetry ratio should turn positive above 1.5 over the next 12 months if the technical setup improves. | →Stable |
| CounterThe momentum notes flag the stock as oversold in an uptrend, which can precede a rapid reversal that clears both the momentum and asymmetry gates within a quarter. | ||
Insiders have been net sellers, with $882,900 sold over 90 days (0.150% of market cap) driving a bearish insider signal that reinforces caution around the current valuation. Insider breakdown | Insider activity should flip to net buying over the next 12 months if insiders see renewed value at these levels. | →Stable |
| CounterA single sale of under 0.2% of market cap is a modest signal that could reflect routine diversification or tax planning rather than a considered bearish view on the business. | ||
Earnings appear to reflect a commodity-price cycle peak: a forward P/E of 3.5x sits far below the 12x threshold and the forward/trailing ratio of 0.41x is below the 0.55 mean-reversion marker, suggesting the current earnings run rate may not be sustainable.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should normalize toward or above 6x over the next 12 months if the commodity-driven earnings surge partially reverses as expected.
CounterA persistently low forward P/E can also reflect a genuinely underpriced stock rather than an unsustainable earnings peak, especially if commodity prices remain structurally elevated rather than mean-reverting.
Elevated leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.2 drawing a leverage penalty in the engine's model, adds financial risk on top of the commodity-cycle concerns.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity should fall below 1.5 over the next 12 months if the company delevers using its strong current cash flow.
CounterThe company shows excellent cash conversion at 254% of FCF to net income, so even elevated leverage may be comfortably serviced and reduced quickly without financial distress.
The stock has already reached its analyst price target with modeled upside at just -1.8%, per the engine's target check, indicating limited further re-rating potential at current levels.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Modeled upside should move back above 15% over the next 12 months if the price target is revised higher or the stock pulls back to a more attractive entry.
CounterAnalyst price targets are frequently revised upward following strong earnings, so a target-reached reading can resolve itself through target upgrades rather than requiring the stock to fall.
The setup has failed both the momentum gate (3.1 versus a 4.5 threshold) and the asymmetry gate (a negative -0.2 ratio), signaling an unfavorable near-term risk/reward profile despite an oversold reading.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The momentum score should climb above 4.5 and the asymmetry ratio should turn positive above 1.5 over the next 12 months if the technical setup improves.
CounterThe momentum notes flag the stock as oversold in an uptrend, which can precede a rapid reversal that clears both the momentum and asymmetry gates within a quarter.
Insiders have been net sellers, with $882,900 sold over 90 days (0.150% of market cap) driving a bearish insider signal that reinforces caution around the current valuation.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider activity should flip to net buying over the next 12 months if insiders see renewed value at these levels.
CounterA single sale of under 0.2% of market cap is a modest signal that could reflect routine diversification or tax planning rather than a considered bearish view on the business.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Geopark screens as attractively valued on a forward basis, but the engine flags multiple concerning factors - a possible commodity-cycle earnings peak, a price target already reached, failed momentum and asymmetry gates, elevated leverage, and net insider selling - consistent with its recommendation to consider reducing the position rather than adding to it.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.5 |
| ROA | 3.9 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 5.9 |
| Current ratio | 4.0 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 254% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 23 (fail)
Growth
5.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -6%
Momentum
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 5.8 |
| erm sentiment | 4.9 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
6.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $882,900 (0.146% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.6 |
| quality rank | 6.3 |
| growth rank | 2.3 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.8 |
| support resistance | 6.2 |
| 52w position | 6.8 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.7 |
| days to cover | 9.5 |
| volatility | 1.9 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 2.8 |
- ▸High IV: 108%
Catalyst
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:28d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=3.6x,ratio=0.41x
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.98
Upside
-10.5%
Downside
10.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.7 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE, MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=3.6x,ratio=0.41x) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.98 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.4, Quality at 6.7, and Insider at 6.5; the weakest are Peer rank at 4.1, Catalyst at 5.3, and Growth at 5.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.98 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Commodity Cycle Peak Earnings
Trip ifQuarterly EPS surprise stays positive (greater than 0%) for 4 consecutive quarters, showing no mean-reversion decline in earnings.
- P2Limited Upside Target Reached
Trip ifModeled upside rises above 15%, from the current -1.8%, as the analyst target is revised or the price consolidates.
- P3Negative Asymmetry Momentum Failure
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 1.5, from the current -0.18, alongside a momentum score above 4.5.
- P4Elevated Leverage Penalty
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio falls below 1.5, from the current 2.2, over the next 4 quarters.
- P5Notable Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider signal flips to bullish with net insider buying exceeding $500,000 over a 90-day window.