Value
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.5 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.29
- ▸Attractively valued
GPRK · Why this verdict
Why Geopark (GPRK) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
GeoPark has strong returns (ROE 29%) and a low forward P/E of 7.6x with rising estimates and revenue, but the price is 19.0% above the $9.54 analyst target and insiders are selling.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
GeoPark earns an excellent ROE of 29% with margins of 16% and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, supporting a quality score of 7.6. Quality breakdown | ROE should stay above 20% and quality above 7.0 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterOil and gas E&P returns follow commodity prices, so current returns may reflect a favorable price cycle rather than durable advantage, and leverage (D/E 1.8) adds a penalty. | ||
Revenue jumped to about $184.5M last quarter from $114.9M a year earlier, and earnings estimates are trending up. Revenue quarters | Quarterly revenue should stay above $150M over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe step up from $128M to $185M in one quarter may reflect commodity prices or timing, and revenue data is provisional with no next-quarter estimate. | ||
EPS has beaten in the last 2 reports ($0.21 versus $0.12 in August) after four consecutive misses in 2024-25, so the record is only recently improving. Avg surprise pct | EPS should meet or beat the estimate at the 2026-11-03 report and stay positive in the next four quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe average surprise of +1,988% is distorted by a near-zero estimate in February, and the long run of earlier misses suggests forecasting is unreliable. | ||
The $11.78 price is 19.0% above the $9.54 analyst target, so analysts see no upside at current levels despite a forward P/E of 7.6x. Upside pct | Analysts should raise the target above $11.78 if higher revenue and estimates persist, or the price should converge toward the target. | →Stable |
| CounterLight analyst coverage means targets can be stale, and rising estimates suggest targets will be revised up. | ||
Insiders sold about $2.35M (0.307% of market cap) in 2 sales over 90 days with no buying, which offsets institutional accumulation. Insider breakdown | Net insider selling should stay below 0.5% of market cap over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA sale of 0.307% of market cap is modest and may be routine, while institutions are accumulating. | ||
GeoPark earns an excellent ROE of 29% with margins of 16% and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, supporting a quality score of 7.6.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE should stay above 20% and quality above 7.0 over the next 12 months.
CounterOil and gas E&P returns follow commodity prices, so current returns may reflect a favorable price cycle rather than durable advantage, and leverage (D/E 1.8) adds a penalty.
Revenue jumped to about $184.5M last quarter from $114.9M a year earlier, and earnings estimates are trending up.
↓DeterioratingRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should stay above $150M over the next 12 months.
CounterThe step up from $128M to $185M in one quarter may reflect commodity prices or timing, and revenue data is provisional with no next-quarter estimate.
EPS has beaten in the last 2 reports ($0.21 versus $0.12 in August) after four consecutive misses in 2024-25, so the record is only recently improving.
↓DeterioratingAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- EPS should meet or beat the estimate at the 2026-11-03 report and stay positive in the next four quarters.
CounterThe average surprise of +1,988% is distorted by a near-zero estimate in February, and the long run of earlier misses suggests forecasting is unreliable.
The $11.78 price is 19.0% above the $9.54 analyst target, so analysts see no upside at current levels despite a forward P/E of 7.6x.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analysts should raise the target above $11.78 if higher revenue and estimates persist, or the price should converge toward the target.
CounterLight analyst coverage means targets can be stale, and rising estimates suggest targets will be revised up.
Insiders sold about $2.35M (0.307% of market cap) in 2 sales over 90 days with no buying, which offsets institutional accumulation.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Net insider selling should stay below 0.5% of market cap over the next 12 months.
CounterA sale of 0.307% of market cap is modest and may be routine, while institutions are accumulating.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.5 |
| ROA | 5.2 |
| Gross margin | 9.9 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 8.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.5 |
| FCF quality | 7.7 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 29%
- ▸Strong margins: 16%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
5.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.4 |
| EPS growth | 3.5 |
Momentum
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.7 |
| MACD | 1.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 38) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 5.5 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $2,350,300 (0.329% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.6 |
| quality rank | 6.9 |
| growth rank | 2.7 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.4 |
| support resistance | 6.9 |
| 52w position | 6.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.3 |
| days to cover | 8.1 |
| volatility | 3.6 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 3.4 |
- ▸High IV: 99%
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 5 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Fundamentals strong but target reached (-12.1% upside).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_DEEP_VALUE|V8:TARGET_REACHED|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (4)
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (4)
- MOMENTUM:2.9<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.7=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:0.33%=HEAVY
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.71
Upside
-12.1%
Downside
7.1%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (7.6) with weak momentum (2.9)
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.9<4.5 outcome against Value at 8.4 and asymmetric R:R of -1.71.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.4, Quality at 7.6, and Technical at 7.6; the weakest are Momentum at 2.9, Peer rank at 4.6, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 4 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.71 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Returns Strong Quality
Trip ifROE falls below 15% from the current 29%.
- P2Rising Revenue
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $128M, the prior-quarter level, from the latest $184.5M.
- P3Inconsistent Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls below $9.95, the stop level, from the current $11.78.
- P5Insider Selling Pressure
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 1% of market cap over 90 days from the current 0.307%.