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Kimbell Royalty Partners (KRP) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $15.32, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Commodity: oil revenues (62.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin and Mid-Continent (54.0%).

Kimbell Royalty Partners is a Delaware LP owning mineral and royalty interests across ~12.3M gross acres and ORRIs across ~4.7M gross acres in 28 U.S. states. Revenue from royalty payments on oil (62%), natural gas (25%), and NGLs (13%) from ~1,300 active operators.

$15.32+1.1% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#22 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
Stop $14.74Target $15.49(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$17.80+16.2%5 analysts
$15.49our TP
$15.32price
$17.80mean
$14
$23

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $15.32, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Commodity: oil revenues (62.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin and Mid-Continent (54.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Commodity: oil revenues (62.0%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin and Mid-Continent (54.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.8
P/E (Fwd)21.1
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA8.1
Profit Mgn28.3%
ROE12.2%
Rev Growth8.8%
Beta0.27
Dividend9.61%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C0.92neutral
IV36%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCommodityoil revenues62%
    10-K Item 1: 'our oil, natural gas and NGL revenues were generated 62% from oil sales, 25% from natural gas sales and 13% from NGL sales'
  • HIGHGeographicPermian Basin and Mid-Continent54%
    10-K Item 1: 'approximately 54% of our aggregate acres located in the Permian Basin and Mid-Continent'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.4
Growth Rank
5.4
Quality Rank
6.5
Best-in-class margins

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.8
Support Resistance
1.0
52w Position
9.8
GatesA.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dMomentum 6.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
68 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $13.79Resistance $15.49

Price Targets

$15
$15
A.Upside+1.1%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.1% upside)
! Reward/Risk 0.1:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KRP stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $15.32, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Commodity: oil revenues (62.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin and Mid-Continent (54.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $15.49 (+1.1%), stop $14.74 (−3.9%), A.R:R 0.1:1. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KRP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $15.49 (+1.1% upside). Target $15.49 (+1.1%), stop $14.74 (−3.9%), A.R:R 0.1:1. Stop-loss: $14.74.

What are the risks of investing in KRP?

Concentration risk — Commodity: oil revenues (62.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin and Mid-Continent (54.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is KRP overvalued or undervalued?

Kimbell Royalty Partners trades at a P/E of 24.8 (forward 21.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about KRP?

11 analysts cover KRP with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $18.

What does Kimbell Royalty Partners do?Kimbell Royalty Partners is a Delaware LP owning mineral and royalty interests across ~12.3M gross acres and ORRIs...

Kimbell Royalty Partners is a Delaware LP owning mineral and royalty interests across ~12.3M gross acres and ORRIs across ~4.7M gross acres in 28 U.S. states. Revenue from royalty payments on oil (62%), natural gas (25%), and NGLs (13%) from ~1,300 active operators.

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